Tennis · resolved market
Hubert Hurkacz vs. Tommy Paul: Total Sets O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4fb8d96fd699ca313d537abf4246fc2ca8049256ec5a744f9eea606b0d1eb084
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Over 3.5of Over 3.5, Under 3.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,162
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,143
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,162 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7879…3653backed Over 3.5 | 68c | 2,202$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$702.44 | 86 | 59.3%51 W · 35 L | +5.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3a…a56bbacked Over 3.5 | 70c | 2,000$1,390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610 | 171 | 49.1%84 W · 87 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Under 3.5 | 30c | 1,040$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.79 | 1,149 | 41.3%474 W · 675 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under 3.5 | 32c | 1,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 1,510 | 37.7%569 W · 941 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f64…3633backed Under 3.5 | 31c | 776.43$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.41 | 992 | 49.4%490 W · 502 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Over 3.5 | 66c | 749.94$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.03 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Under 3.5 | 32c | 600$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f16…701dbacked Over 3.5 | 69c | 579.71$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.71 | 79 | 38%30 W · 49 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under 3.5 | 31c | 414.97$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.64 | 852 | 50%426 W · 426 L | +22.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x459f…c1f5backed Under 3.5 | 31c | 400$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…df71backed Under 3.5 | 34c | 370.53$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.98 | 1,021 | 49.8%508 W · 513 L | +42.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfea6…b795backed Under 3.5 | 24c | 251.28$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.6 | 541 | 41.4%224 W · 317 L | -19.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b3…145dbacked Over 3.5 | 67c | 224.63$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.63 | 917 | 54%495 W · 422 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1d…2fb6backed Under 3.5 | 30c | 219.19$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.7 | 1,556 | 42.4%660 W · 896 L | +20.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under 3.5 | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 1,541 | 49.2%758 W · 783 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Under 3.5 | 33c | 174.63$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.63 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6caa…4fb3backed Under 3.5 | 31c | 165.67$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.36 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under 3.5 | 34c | 101.29$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.44 | 1,688 | 45.4%766 W · 922 L | -10.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26d0…566ebacked Under 3.5 | 34c | 64.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 485 | 52.4%254 W · 231 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabbc…04a3backed Under 3.5 | 34c | 64.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 189 | 57.7%109 W · 80 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under 3.5 | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc278…e91fbacked Over 3.5 | 69c | 29.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9b…8aedbacked Over 3.5 | 69c | 23.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3715…3704backed Over 3.5 | 66c | 22.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Over 3.5 | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 335 | 50.1%168 W · 167 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04a0…a986backed Over 3.5 | 67c | 18.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 109 | 65.1%71 W · 38 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hubert Hurkacz vs. Tommy Paul: Total Sets O/U 3.5this page
- Hurkacz vs. Paul: Match O/U 40.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Hurkacz vs PaulPaul won
- Set 2 Winner: Hurkacz vs PaulHurkacz won
- Set 3 Winner: Hurkacz vs PaulHurkacz won
- Set 4 Winner: Hurkacz vs PaulHurkacz won
- Set Handicap: Paul (-1.5) vs Hurkacz (+1.5)Hurkacz won
- Set Handicap: Paul (-2.5) vs Hurkacz (+2.5)Hurkacz won
- Wimbledon ATP: Hubert Hurkacz vs Tommy PaulHubert Hurkacz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.