Tennis · resolved market
Set 2 Winner: Li vs Rybakina
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4fb93b63bcd9f31915c1c2597131dfc67dcf0caf460dcd7eb591580f95cd02b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rybakinaof Li, Rybakina
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,710
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,900
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,710 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x70ad…ae4bbacked Rybakina | 73c | 2,735$2,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$732.81 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Li | 25c | 1,617$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.75 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50ca…bfddbacked Li | 22c | 699.98$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.99 | 603 | 42%253 W · 350 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Li | 28c | 686.81$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.31 | 1,681 | 50%841 W · 840 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…af12backed Rybakina | 18c | 201.49$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.22 | 2,032 | 46.9%952 W · 1,080 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Rybakina | 51c | 166.44$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.75 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40f7…1f5ebacked Rybakina | 78c | 150$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 747 | 43.6%326 W · 421 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…df71backed Li | 25c | 112.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 1,021 | 49.8%508 W · 513 L | +42.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd9…039bbacked Li | 19c | 78.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,008 | 38.3%386 W · 622 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71f5…4ccebacked Li | 35c | 65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 226 | 51.8%117 W · 109 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5974…5c32backed Rybakina | 78c | 46.79$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 455 | 66.4%302 W · 153 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17ef…9a2cbacked Li | 28c | 45.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 788 | 57.1%450 W · 338 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Rybakina | 78c | 39.01$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 1,776 | 48.6%863 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…3a3fbacked Rybakina | 78c | 20.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 213 | 51.6%110 W · 103 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 2 Winner: Li vs Rybakinathis page
- Ann Li vs. Elena Rybakina: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- National Bank Open: Ann Li vs Elena RybakinaElena Rybakina won
- Set Handicap: Li (-1.5) vs Rybakina (+1.5)Rybakina won
- Set Handicap: Rybakina (-1.5) vs Li (+1.5)Rybakina won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.