Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 75-76°F on June 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4fcf4823142a27185b9df33c0a825c9a373cde1e522d6c5b67073550b90cf157
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,953
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,418
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,953 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 36c | 438$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.8 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d4…5b1fbacked No | 49c | 406.23$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +103.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94d0…605ebacked No | 60c | 400$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb612…fdd9backed Yes | 37c | 399.99$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x49ac…84f3backed Yes | 38c | 341.84$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.76 | 102 | 29.4%30 W · 72 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e75…ec24backed No | 62c | 324.21$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Yes | 24c | 320.19$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.23 | 67 | 11.9%8 W · 59 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 37c | 304.29$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.13 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 38c | 265$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.35 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 40c | 185$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.16 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 38c | 165.96$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.77 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca94…336ebacked No | 72c | 138.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.39 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 73cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4491…1d77backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 356 | 27%96 W · 260 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 99.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.7 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1aff…8f5cbacked No | 45c | 88.41$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +121%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…ae14backed No | 74c | 64.14$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 28c | 55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 27c | 42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7850…119ebacked No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd68e…f46bbacked Yes | 47c | 32.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f00…5b4cbacked No | 64c | 26.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 70c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 75-76°F on June 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 68°F or below on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 79°F or higher on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 71-72°F on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 73-74°F on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 77-78°F on June 14?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.