South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Mirassol FC win on 2025-11-09?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x502a01f1d76b6384c9f774734409bc2b2e83d1d1ee608b02f1bc07958fabbfc1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,528
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,639
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,528 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc996…bb65backed No | 52c | 3,194$1,670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,670.18 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +9.7wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked Yes | 43c | 2,092$906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,185.6 | 332 | 51.8%172 W · 160 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 25c | 2,007$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,505.28 | 436 | 18.8%82 W · 354 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 55c | 1,911$1,057 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$853.37 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…612ebacked No | 41c | 964.84$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c13…ee33backed No | 37c | 907.98$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.03 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe657…cf98backed Yes | 77c | 773.16$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 65c | 683.34$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.81 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8090…42c1backed No | 58c | 598.1$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.06 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6b…075fbacked Yes | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 24c | 495.37$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.95 | 506 | 61.3%310 W · 196 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6384…3c83backed No | 79c | 430.38$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb893…bf4bbacked Yes | 26c | 388.73$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.66 | 102 | 42.2%43 W · 59 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…15f2backed Yes | 72c | 301.37$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e6…8852backed Yes | 69c | 289.86$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.86 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 73c | 244.37$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.27 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed Yes | 52c | 210.72$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.48 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed No | 74c | 143.99$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.55 | 115 | 49.6%57 W · 58 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 20c | 140.07$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 120 | 45.8%55 W · 65 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…9ab4backed Yes | 25c | 133.2$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.9 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 73c | 109.59$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.59 | 151 | 58.3%88 W · 63 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 24c | 82.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.07 | 318 | 27%86 W · 232 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…487dbacked Yes | 49c | 81.35$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.35 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.27per pick | 60cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb379…517bbacked Yes | 26c | 76.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.95 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8f…6b61backed Yes | 58c | 75.95$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.57 | 117 | 38.5%45 W · 72 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc30…fc9ebacked Yes | 72c | 70.83$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x154c…658ebacked No | 74c | 64.73$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.83 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…f5eabacked No | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 45c | 55.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 402 | 42%169 W · 233 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef41…2473backed No | 40c | 44.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9380…a275backed Yes | 60c | 33.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9088…351ebacked Yes | 71c | 33.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe221…234dbacked Yes | 60c | 31.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98b0…18c2backed No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f02…ddabbacked Yes | 80c | 25.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…1db8backed Yes | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x641b…6116backed Yes | 77c | 22.48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 130 | 62.3%81 W · 49 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…e409backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe333…b1e4backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad0e…fec5backed No | 77c | 16.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.28per pick | 71cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mirassol FC win on 2025-11-09?this page
- Will Mirassol FC vs. SE Palmeiras end in a draw?No won
- Will SE Palmeiras win on 2025-11-09?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.