South American Leagues · resolved market
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2025-11-09?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa27e61accc8e4c64a1ea78fc99f30dea56f3ad950f2634174d1e75aac7982509
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,177
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,262
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,177 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed No | 52c | 30,000$15,599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,400.99 | 316 | 43%136 W · 180 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Yes | 48c | 22,404$10,754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,753.92 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 48c | 8,010$3,831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,830.69 | 192 | 39.1%75 W · 117 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 60c | 2,054$1,229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$825.29 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 61c | 1,425$862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.76 | 332 | 51.8%172 W · 160 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd1…4ea6backed Yes | 34c | 1,281$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.08 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c13…ee33backed Yes | 30c | 800$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 78c | 686.91$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.44 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…6525backed Yes | 14c | 650$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3b…b968backed Yes | 16c | 625$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…5084backed Yes | 48c | 604.17$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 30c | 410.08$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 402 | 42%169 W · 233 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1474…3454backed Yes | 49c | 346.94$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 10c | 286$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.38 | 271 | 33.9%92 W · 179 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x644e…ff58backed Yes | 15c | 170$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0180…b8cdbacked Yes | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -8.8wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9088…351ebacked Yes | 13c | 123.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12c4…ff8cbacked Yes | 49c | 97.96$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 49c | 92.75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.55 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2149…3a74backed Yes | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…e4f8backed Yes | 32c | 85.42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x042a…b153backed Yes | 12c | 84.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 14c | 83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 329 | 36.5%120 W · 209 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70b0…b71fbacked Yes | 45c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a51…4cc0backed Yes | 28c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3067…b8e5backed Yes | 27c | 67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6385…df55backed No | 74c | 65$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf96…7d12backed Yes | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 40cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed Yes | 45c | 45.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 115 | 49.6%57 W · 58 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 151 | 58.3%88 W · 63 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 29c | 40.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed1d…327dbacked Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd705…b1b4backed No | 55c | 38.11$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +199.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc13f…ca64backed Yes | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958f…a83cbacked No | 61c | 35.52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 65c | 31.88$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 53c | 27.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 130 | 62.3%81 W · 49 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a40…afaabacked Yes | 48c | 27.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…487dbacked Yes | 46c | 25.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.27per pick | 60cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad0e…fec5backed Yes | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.28per pick | 71cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd172…2b71backed Yes | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked No | 49c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 312 | 26.6%83 W · 229 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc046…f138backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SE Palmeiras win on 2025-11-09?this page
- Will Mirassol FC vs. SE Palmeiras end in a draw?No won
- Will Mirassol FC win on 2025-11-09?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.