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CS2 · resolved market

Map Handicap: VIL (-1.5) vs Detonate (+1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Detonateof Villainous, Detonate
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,064
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,081

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,064 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcfbe…0406backed Detonate56c633.71$353 inWon+$280.821291.7%11 W · 1 L+3.7wins+0.31per pick61cpaid+51.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe75d…a961backed Detonate60c580.96$350 inWon+$230.582161.9%13 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+12.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdeb1…e05ebacked Villainous41c570.69$234 inLost-$2341127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.22per pick49cpaid-50.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xeebb…0b96backed Villainous44c418.47$184 inLost-$184.337338.6%144 W · 229 L-1.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaebf…4e6abacked Detonate56c414.62$234 inWon+$180.5827154.6%148 W · 123 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Detonate63c371.74$236 inWon+$136.018,13350.3%4,091 W · 4,042 L+169.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f16…284ebacked Detonate63c326.05$204 inWon+$121.726684.8%56 W · 10 L+12.2wins+0.18per pick66cpaid+27.6%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xcef5…e9acbacked Villainous37c320.58$117 inLost-$117.16836.8%25 W · 43 L-5.6wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-21.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7f46…9097backed Villainous45c293.74$132 inLost-$13210448.1%50 W · 54 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc368…a3c4backed Villainous43c287.28$124 inLost-$1244938.8%19 W · 30 L-4.4wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-22.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0698…b91dbacked Villainous39c271.58$106 inLost-$10615736.9%58 W · 99 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb57f…0c96backed Villainous39c224.14$87 inLost-$87.4622045%99 W · 121 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x39df…6edfbacked Villainous42c193.4$80 inLost-$80.313033.3%10 W · 20 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac33…fda0backed Detonate58c170$99 inWon+$71.47347.9%35 W · 38 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1bec…8d52backed Villainous37c106$39 inLost-$38.86750.7%34 W · 33 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x483d…a099backed Detonate58c103.62$60 inWon+$43.2928246.5%131 W · 151 L-10.3wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Detonate64c79.92$51 inWon+$29.0717135.1%60 W · 111 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x329d…5a92backed Detonate59c74.49$44 inWon+$30.3920945.5%95 W · 114 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5cb1…6c8fbacked Detonate61c62$38 inWon+$23.962853.6%15 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf3b…0375backed Villainous37c59.5$22 inLost-$22.0240245.3%182 W · 220 L-8.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7aab…9cbabacked Detonate61c32.62$20 inWon+$12.622100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x11f6…d13ebacked Villainous41c26.99$11 inLost-$11.071233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-49.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.