NHL · resolved market
Blackhawks vs. Oilers: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x50ac136d5b230324de209f4cc06f8c173b9368450eaaf3697b3824f3aa945a78
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,831
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,831
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,831 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Under | 49c | 2,248$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,148.17 | 378 | 47.4%179 W · 199 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 51c | 2,230$1,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,139.5 | 588 | 41.8%246 W · 342 L | -20.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9993…a11cbacked Under | 53c | 2,191$1,161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,029.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd56…ddc7backed Under | 53c | 2,156$1,143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,013.32 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 51cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf108…83a3backed Under | 53c | 2,057$1,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$966.79 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5070…8208backed Under | 53c | 1,536$814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$721.92 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a2…8cb7backed Over | 47c | 1,469$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690.43 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc19a…0981backed Over | 47c | 1,423$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668.81 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f86…2729backed Under | 53c | 1,169$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.43 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9729…eb0cbacked Under | 53c | 1,164$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.08 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa496…c6a4backed Over | 47c | 1,135$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe378…1faabacked Over | 47c | 1,123$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.81 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe496…002fbacked Under | 53c | 1,069$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.43 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd09c…bc3dbacked Over | 47c | 1,056$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f30…ac7fbacked Over | 47c | 1,033$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.51 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a7c…c52fbacked Over | 47c | 1,032$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.04 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc022…7f91backed Under | 53c | 1,032$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.04 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +87.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x117e…7478backed Over | 47c | 1,032$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.04 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2861…b770backed Over | 47c | 1,025$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc98c…ba11backed Under | 53c | 1,022$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.34 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a72…ece1backed Over | 47c | 1,022$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.34 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…110dbacked Over | 47c | 1,022$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.34 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe878…8a5cbacked Over | 47c | 927$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.69 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc9…133dbacked Over | 47c | 863$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.61 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf743…77dfbacked Under | 53c | 814$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.58 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 49cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbef…dffebacked Over | 47c | 769$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.43 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2422…589cbacked Under | 53c | 721$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.87 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Under | 52c | 149.99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 121 | 53.7%65 W · 56 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Over | 48c | 142.08$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.12 | 412 | 46.4%191 W · 221 L | -24.5wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2b…d4d3backed Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Over | 49c | 99.73$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.87 | 308 | 55.5%171 W · 137 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 51c | 72.78$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.66 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 47c | 48.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea5a…058abacked Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Blackhawks vs. Oilers: O/U 6.5this page
- Blackhawks vs. OilersOilers won
- Spread: Oilers (-1.5)Blackhawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.