NHL · resolved market
Spread: Oilers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf7401e5ac1a67d9ead0dbbc47ef862a6c78e8e941a4cc3f8f6251220a69feaa8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Blackhawksof Oilers, Blackhawks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,852
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,878
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,852 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Blackhawks | 49c | 10,000$4,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,100.19 | 425 | 52.2%222 W · 203 L | +25.0wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Oilers | 51c | 8,652$4,413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,412.62 | 145 | 38.6%56 W · 89 L | -19.2wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5070…8208backed Oilers | 52c | 1,425$741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$741 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9729…eb0cbacked Blackhawks | 48c | 1,325$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a72…ece1backed Blackhawks | 48c | 1,023$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.96 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f86…2729backed Oilers | 52c | 999$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.48 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a2…8cb7backed Oilers | 52c | 999$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.48 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a7c…c52fbacked Blackhawks | 48c | 987$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.24 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc022…7f91backed Blackhawks | 48c | 978$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.56 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +87.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…110dbacked Blackhawks | 48c | 963$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.76 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe496…002fbacked Oilers | 52c | 951$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.52 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbef…dffebacked Blackhawks | 48c | 936$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.72 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc19a…0981backed Oilers | 52c | 936$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.72 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc98c…ba11backed Oilers | 52c | 915$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2422…589cbacked Blackhawks | 48c | 865$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.8 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe878…8a5cbacked Oilers | 52c | 802$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.04 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf743…77dfbacked Oilers | 52c | 765$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.8 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 49cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc9…133dbacked Blackhawks | 48c | 715$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Oilers | 52c | 603$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.56 | 588 | 41.8%246 W · 342 L | -20.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60b6…eb2bbacked Oilers | 59c | 300$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178 | 158 | 39.9%63 W · 95 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56f6…9f57backed Blackhawks | 41c | 300$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178 | 338 | 48.8%165 W · 173 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Oilers | 51c | 235.68$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.2 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Oilers | 51c | 203.29$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.65 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Oilers | 51c | 159.46$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.73 | 412 | 46.4%191 W · 221 L | -24.5wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Oilers | 51c | 150$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 121 | 53.7%65 W · 56 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Blackhawks | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 388 | 57.2%222 W · 166 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Oilers | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 403 | 40.9%165 W · 238 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x604a…30e9backed Blackhawks | 50c | 59.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.73 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Blackhawks | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 421 | 44.4%187 W · 234 L | -28.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x311b…943cbacked Oilers | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked Blackhawks | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ec…90bdbacked Oilers | 52c | 20.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Oilers (-1.5)this page
- Blackhawks vs. OilersOilers won
- Blackhawks vs. Oilers: O/U 6.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.