Golf · resolved market
Open Championship: McIlroy vs. DeChambeau
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x51570e1a0fed7daec98b958d40a370f807458d47a8c083c0a1fa37639e9cbef6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- McIlroyof McIlroy, DeChambeau
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Golfevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,216
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,206
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,216 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Golf is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Golf | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked DeChambeau | 42c | 8,676$3,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,680.22 | 233 | 19.3%45 W · 188 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked McIlroy | 57c | 4,497$2,558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,939.03 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c9…2c23backed McIlroy | 60c | 2,553$1,543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,010.14 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed McIlroy | 57c | 2,485$1,415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,069.72 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed DeChambeau | 43c | 830$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.8 | 70 | 31.4%22 W · 48 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0416…9b31backed McIlroy | 57c | 747.08$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc42e…edbdbacked DeChambeau | 43c | 637.08$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.94 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…7ba8backed DeChambeau | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca7…ed82backed DeChambeau | 45c | 59.51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0816…377abacked McIlroy | 55c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed DeChambeau | 44c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Golf and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Open Championship: McIlroy vs. DeChambeauthis page
- Open Championship: Hovland vs. AbergAberg won
- Open Championship: Koepka vs. RahmRahm won
- Open Championship: Niemann vs. HattonHatton won
- Open Championship: Scheffler vs. McIlroy Scheffler won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.