Asian League · resolved market
Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x515e115f69e1bf74a351bfef366ea526b0a73c65fc6256d8df52d5035d9c56e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,172
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,187
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,172 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Under | 72c | 507$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.96 | 219 | 41.6%91 W · 128 L | -17.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 29c | 499.99$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 1,117 | 46.2%516 W · 601 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 29c | 499.97$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.99 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 29c | 482.09$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.81 | 934 | 46.1%431 W · 503 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 75c | 364.65$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.49 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Over | 28c | 338$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.64 | 191 | 58.6%112 W · 79 L | +19.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Over | 28c | 169$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.32 | 233 | 47.6%111 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 72c | 112.12$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.63 | 98 | 60.2%59 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Under | 71c | 75.58$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.92 | 198 | 56.1%111 W · 87 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Under | 72c | 69.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 98 | 59.2%58 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Under | 72c | 69.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 145 | 57.2%83 W · 62 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Under | 72c | 69.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 101 | 60.4%61 W · 40 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 71c | 66.69$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.23 | 390 | 58.2%227 W · 163 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Under | 71c | 66.69$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.23 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 71c | 66.69$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.23 | 325 | 60.3%196 W · 129 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 71c | 66.69$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.23 | 345 | 58.6%202 W · 143 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa42c…b22ebacked Under | 71c | 66.69$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.23 | 33 | 75.8%25 W · 8 L | +4.6wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +29%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 71c | 66.69$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.23 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed Under | 71c | 66.69$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.23 | 74 | 66.2%49 W · 25 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 71c | 63$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 478 | 60.3%288 W · 190 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked Under | 71c | 63$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Under | 71c | 63$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 153 | 58.8%90 W · 63 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Under | 71c | 63$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 246 | 56.9%140 W · 106 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Under | 71c | 63$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Under | 72c | 39.01$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 167 | 59.9%100 W · 67 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 70c | 18.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 1,098 | 43.8%481 W · 617 L | -14.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Under | 72c | 18.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC (-1.5)Qingdao Hainiu FC won
- Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.