Asian League · resolved market
Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x438ded55028ff9bab7318f72618fdf3774ba0809d40a7a03c6b3ca99302d823e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,813
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,464
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,813 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 60c | 1,357$808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$807.59 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2dc…b624backed Over | 33c | 999.93$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.95 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2116…eb8fbacked Under | 3c | 900$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.17per pick | 20cpaid | +100.9%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x80aa…e8eabacked Under | 3c | 900$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 12cpaid | +76.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 60c | 788.31$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.72 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab8…a331backed Over | 68c | 736.4$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.1 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe977…700fbacked Under | 3c | 666.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 12cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 55c | 245$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.7 | 1,098 | 43.8%481 W · 617 L | -14.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Under | 61c | 202.26$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.66 | 167 | 59.9%100 W · 67 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcca9…af95backed Under | 7c | 199.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Over | 32c | 189.04$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.03 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 17c | 134.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 426 | 25.8%110 W · 316 L | -33.7wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -40%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 297 | 45.1%134 W · 163 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 24c | 80.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.13 | 363 | 52.9%192 W · 171 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 26c | 68.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.8 | 213 | 67.6%144 W · 69 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e4…d947backed Over | 39c | 45.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.92 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 57c | 45.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.69 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf7…cb5bbacked Over | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 74cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 27c | 41.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed Over | 73c | 41.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21db…2a42backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 115 | 43.5%50 W · 65 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd80…5ef4backed Under | 73c | 36.58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a91…7ebabacked Under | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Spread: Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC (-1.5)Qingdao Hainiu FC won
- Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.