Asian League · resolved market
Will Cerezo Ōsaka win on 2025-12-06?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x518d0557a4743d002a06eb4fc9c2826ea66c76959ba4618932abcf34b7a9202b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,274
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,799
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,274 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x80cf…427dbacked Yes | 55c | 2,200$1,210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,210 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 73c | 2,055$1,498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.28 | 5,963 | 46%2,744 W · 3,219 L | +46.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 46c | 1,481$681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.22 | 794 | 35.1%279 W · 515 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 54c | 1,421$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$768.61 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8052…cd55backed No | 43c | 1,401$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$798.57 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa72e…3db9backed Yes | 10c | 999$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 52c | 908.11$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.99 | 1,254 | 51.4%644 W · 610 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 43c | 782.16$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447 | 1,098 | 43.8%481 W · 617 L | -14.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…420bbacked Yes | 58c | 617.76$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.3 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +40%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 46c | 588.5$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.25 | 623 | 49.1%306 W · 317 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0caf…abfebacked Yes | 56c | 535.71$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 8c | 342.64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 2,528 | 42.2%1,067 W · 1,461 L | +53.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08be…5b1fbacked Yes | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked No | 49c | 336.89$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.56 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed No | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Yes | 56c | 137.5$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed No | 73c | 125.92$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.67 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed No | 45c | 124.04$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.22 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 53c | 123$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.81 | 275 | 40.7%112 W · 163 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2382…4628backed No | 47c | 108.17$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.91 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 24c | 106$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 531 | 48.8%259 W · 272 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6e…c865backed No | 48c | 105$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +6.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 267 | 49.4%132 W · 135 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c9c…bcfcbacked Yes | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8f…6b61backed No | 72c | 63.38$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4021…956abacked Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed No | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked Yes | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x499e…c968backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b80…bc0abacked Yes | 55c | 29.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…8366backed Yes | 57c | 25.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbd…1bf5backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +42%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1e…327abacked Yes | 57c | 18.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Cerezo Ōsaka win on 2025-12-06?this page
- Will Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Yokohama FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Yokohama FC win on 2025-12-06?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.