South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Associação Chapecoense de Futebol win on 2026-03-22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x518d0e3578f8c226ce26452219d6cbeaab72d8b7a35c6146cfc73afc558d01cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $165,118
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $165,118 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0792…b778backed Yes | 11c | 128,027$14,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,082.93 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe519…2f48backed Yes | 9c | 6,847$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.74 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 11c | 4,020$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.15 | 436 | 18.8%82 W · 354 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Yes | 9c | 2,573$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 391 | 27.1%106 W · 285 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 5c | 2,047$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 465 | 30.3%141 W · 324 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 12c | 969.04$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.28 | 97 | 27.8%27 W · 70 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 12c | 757.19$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.86 | 849 | 43.8%372 W · 477 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d7…a861backed Yes | 14c | 714.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Yes | 13c | 476.92$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 317 | 45.1%143 W · 174 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b1…536dbacked Yes | 11c | 445.45$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2807…27d5backed Yes | 12c | 416.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 60 | 20%12 W · 48 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 3c | 350.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 7c | 190.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 817 | 40.8%333 W · 484 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f68…4132backed Yes | 12c | 162.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Yes | 12c | 162$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Yes | 11c | 127.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a68…22dfbacked Yes | 12c | 116.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 64 | 15.6%10 W · 54 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50e0…776ebacked Yes | 13c | 92.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Associação Chapecoense de Futebol win on 2026-03-22?this page
- Will SC Internacional vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol end in a draw?No won
- Will SC Internacional win on 2026-03-22?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.