South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA Mineiro vs. CA Juventud end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5193768a3f55a8206af3a0792192b41deb911273085e24c77ee4776b615bb752
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,798
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,955
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,798 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x67ac…edf1backed Yes | 71c | 6,800$4,815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,815.32 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 72c | 4,145$2,969 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,176.26 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed No | 39c | 947$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.06 | 211 | 32.7%69 W · 142 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 31c | 811.32$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.21 | 849 | 43.8%372 W · 477 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 39c | 792.29$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.68 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56e0…1a3bbacked Yes | 35c | 712.88$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.42 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Yes | 79c | 582.87$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.47 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 26c | 460.58$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.45 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c29…87dcbacked Yes | 58c | 435.12$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.88 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc775…6b22backed Yes | 12c | 333$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b3d…7de0backed Yes | 68c | 288.47$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.16 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef20…c46abacked No | 75c | 281.59$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.84 | 38 | 81.6%31 W · 7 L | +10.2wins | +0.27per pick | 55cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…ab7cbacked Yes | 75c | 262$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.02 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.3wins | -0.41per pick | 53cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5140…9951backed No | 77c | 256.16$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.92 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Yes | 12c | 202.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 391 | 27.1%106 W · 285 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked Yes | 13c | 192$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e0…a433backed Yes | 57c | 171.73$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.52 | 108 | 26.9%29 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x981b…b8eabacked Yes | 17c | 167.68$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 93 | 40.9%38 W · 55 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9902…34b3backed Yes | 12c | 166.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3e…7857backed No | 78c | 163.36$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9720…2c24backed Yes | 25c | 160$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 59c | 156.75$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.84 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f15…0ce5backed Yes | 69c | 145.55$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.51 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c16…2dabbacked Yes | 75c | 143.65$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…e57dbacked Yes | 10c | 141.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 256 | 25%64 W · 192 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945e…e95fbacked Yes | 25c | 119.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x550d…f1ffbacked Yes | 71c | 89.96$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.87 | 109 | 64.2%70 W · 39 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 53c | 87.78$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.12 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 16c | 85.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46dc…92c3backed No | 39c | 82.95$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.37 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked No | 29c | 76.53$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.16 | 130 | 23.1%30 W · 100 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce22…5704backed No | 33c | 74.96$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.47 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +43%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 34c | 67.19$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.64 | 716 | 19.7%141 W · 575 L | -49.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 33c | 62.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.15 | 948 | 48.1%456 W · 492 L | -18.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Yes | 41c | 59.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0133…bbbbbacked Yes | 77c | 58.16$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 26c | 43.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5be1…3371backed Yes | 64c | 38.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4178…8b48backed Yes | 68c | 28.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked No | 56c | 28.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 258 | 64.3%166 W · 92 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe941…a496backed No | 64c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA Mineiro vs. CA Juventud end in a draw?this page
- Will CA Juventud win on 2026-04-16?No won
- Will CA Mineiro win on 2026-04-16?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.