Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 62-63°F on February 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x519e9bb95e6c65611c8aa3a465f5489d0d8bda1c98f348b488d98f3aa48804fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,593
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,835
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,593 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 71c | 273.97$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.63 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb8…7471backed No | 30c | 234.65$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.33 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 65c | 180.99$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.64 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 26c | 177.48$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.26 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd27…0af7backed No | 15c | 137.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…c51dbacked Yes | 79c | 135.49$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.31 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | +14.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0788…c9dcbacked No | 73c | 132.27$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.15 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -5.6wins | -0.43per pick | 74cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f6…5d2dbacked Yes | 24c | 121.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.34 | 77 | 19.5%15 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 76c | 119.44$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.37 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 27c | 111.89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.19 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 33c | 102.13$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.15 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 22c | 95.21$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.86 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 71c | 94.46$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.16 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a35…6387backed Yes | 31c | 82.58$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.8 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 21c | 77.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.41 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 22c | 73.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.05 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbf…7df7backed Yes | 29c | 69.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.83 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 69.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.96 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 72c | 52.39$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.96 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6867…e83dbacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x174c…4351backed Yes | 25c | 48.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.73 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd850…d8dcbacked Yes | 24c | 46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.96 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 24c | 43.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 67c | 39.88$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ec…42f8backed Yes | 29c | 38.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.14 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 76c | 34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…ee01backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 80 | 72.5%58 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dc…d8a4backed Yes | 35c | 28.68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.64 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x517e…4fb2backed No | 74c | 28.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 90 | 76.7%69 W · 21 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffc…594fbacked No | 76c | 27.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c8…dd57backed Yes | 68c | 26.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf901…f17dbacked No | 79c | 25.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 65c | 23.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c6a…631abacked No | 75c | 21.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe201…3f41backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -30%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5f…76d4backed No | 75c | 19.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -6.3wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed No | 76c | 18.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6113…501dbacked No | 63c | 16.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.27per pick | 63cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked Yes | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…b5f2backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 62-63°F on February 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 59°F or below on February 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 74°F or higher on February 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 60-61°F on February 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 64-65°F on February 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 66-67°F on February 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on February 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.