Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 60-61°F on February 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x08147b845ffda65725460d7924563d12620f1af4c6965c680a7093d428cff0d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,087
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,902
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,087 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 15c | 271.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.73 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 25c | 245.22$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.9 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 221$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.72 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c8…dd57backed Yes | 54c | 202.28$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.59 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb8…f2abbacked No | 70c | 142.48$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f6…5d2dbacked Yes | 28c | 140.98$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.47 | 77 | 19.5%15 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 73c | 118.16$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.66 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb8…7471backed No | 47c | 106.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.17 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed No | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 385 | 15.6%60 W · 325 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x968b…e4c5backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | -10.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 32c | 99.55$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.19 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 35c | 96.38$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.05 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc11e…75c8backed Yes | 38c | 83.55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 86 | 23.3%20 W · 66 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 65c | 75$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 36c | 62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1be…3578backed Yes | 26c | 61.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef03…1fbfbacked No | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 38c | 59.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf845…7c31backed No | 35c | 54.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 56c | 54.21$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.09 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 74c | 51.82$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 251 | 19.9%50 W · 201 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43ca…bfcebacked Yes | 29c | 49.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7292…4a2dbacked Yes | 22c | 47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 28c | 41.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09fc…8a7ebacked No | 60c | 38.95$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…b5f2backed No | 69c | 37.36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 69c | 36.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d8b…20d0backed Yes | 36c | 34.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5483…adbbbacked Yes | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 62c | 30.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a3c…4fecbacked No | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93c3…e952backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed No | 52c | 22.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 69c | 21.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b66…3907backed Yes | 48c | 21.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dc…d8a4backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed Yes | 61c | 19.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…9811backed Yes | 76c | 19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -4.0wins | -0.19per pick | 76cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 70c | 17.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4950…d8edbacked Yes | 66c | 17.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd4d…5bd5backed No | 71c | 17.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94e7…c00cbacked Yes | 67c | 16.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb9…9dbabacked No | 74c | 15.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 74c | 15.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 179 | 78.8%141 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 78cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 60-61°F on February 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 59°F or below on February 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 74°F or higher on February 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 62-63°F on February 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 64-65°F on February 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 66-67°F on February 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on February 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.