Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Rybakina (-1.5) vs Gibson (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x51bf1d481bbf4c19d764dcc6e199e1abc67e0474c578e8a226843d317ffe7e16
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rybakinaof Rybakina, Gibson
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,861
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,861 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x889f…7dd8backed Rybakina | 73c | 4,301$3,118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,182.34 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.4wins | -0.26per pick | 57cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b3…0329backed Gibson | 26c | 3,080$796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$796.12 | 104 | 40.4%42 W · 62 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Gibson | 33c | 1,799$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.96 | 305 | 30.8%94 W · 211 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Gibson | 37c | 1,500$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.85 | 572 | 49.5%283 W · 289 L | -32.8wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Gibson | 30c | 1,488$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.25 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7649…02e6backed Gibson | 49c | 1,410$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3273…0c24backed Rybakina | 66c | 1,387$911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.57 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Rybakina | 61c | 1,105$677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.52 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Gibson | 34c | 1,010$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.23 | 150 | 48%72 W · 78 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd52…df69backed Rybakina | 63c | 994.71$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.04 | 265 | 45.3%120 W · 145 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa446…d9c6backed Rybakina | 65c | 808$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.71 | 153 | 54.2%83 W · 70 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Rybakina | 63c | 616.06$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.01 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ce…0a8ebacked Rybakina | 65c | 430$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.1 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed Gibson | 49c | 410.56$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,566 | 40%627 W · 939 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Rybakina | 65c | 167.71$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.41 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Rybakina | 64c | 109$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.76 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa307…8ea3backed Gibson | 34c | 96$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 227 | 47.6%108 W · 119 L | +14.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Gibson | 35c | 85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 556 | 60.3%335 W · 221 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Rybakina | 63c | 72.83$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 2,418 | 51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L | +10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10ef…bff0backed Rybakina | 67c | 61$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +72.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Gibson | 17c | 58.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Gibson | 33c | 52.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Gibson | 37c | 51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 572 | 52.3%299 W · 273 L | +17.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Gibson | 34c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Rybakina | 67c | 20.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 380 | 48.4%184 W · 196 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a3a…f788backed Rybakina | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Rybakina (-1.5) vs Gibson (+1.5)this page
- Elena Rybakina vs. Talia Gibson: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Miami Open: Elena Rybakina vs Talia GibsonElena Rybakina won
- Rybakina vs. Gibson: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Under won
- Set 1 Winner: Rybakina vs GibsonRybakina won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.