Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-02-01?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x51d7debbff868a4a653716162d755cb2e4facbb07913a23fbf9a3f44808eb2df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,577
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,322
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,577 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8bdc…b5e9backed Yes | 19c | 1,904$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.69 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 12c | 1,206$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.78 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 12c | 958.53$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.86 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 16c | 924.81$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.97 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Yes | 5c | 900$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 264 | 33.3%88 W · 176 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8d…e22dbacked Yes | 18c | 850.86$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 19c | 842$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.98 | 243 | 22.2%54 W · 189 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 18c | 795.26$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.39 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa62d…92e0backed Yes | 19c | 657.89$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 18c | 652.94$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.49 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Yes | 19c | 595.59$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.14 | 228 | 29.4%67 W · 161 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b2d…379dbacked Yes | 13c | 585.8$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…307dbacked Yes | 12c | 583.33$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -6.3wins | -0.12per pick | 61cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c5…50cdbacked Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c38…3d15backed Yes | 13c | 307.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ccc…dbcdbacked Yes | 10c | 300$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe889…d0c3backed Yes | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed No | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafd4…4432backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a4…6e1abacked Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b69…49dabacked Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14c3…0262backed Yes | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84e5…2303backed Yes | 19c | 131.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…19e9backed Yes | 18c | 116$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15d7…a861backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe343…5c31backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 15.4%8 W · 44 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd257…d215backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 85 | 17.6%15 W · 70 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1861…d25abacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…13eebacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 40 | 75%30 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f19…ec51backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa196…5b78backed Yes | 18c | 90$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9544…790dbacked Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 115 | 40.9%47 W · 68 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed No | 79c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…814cbacked Yes | 19c | 63.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbcf…20aebacked Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6dd…52dbbacked Yes | 19c | 51.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb2…4954backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf677…409ebacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x215d…67cfbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3a…9993backed No | 80c | 44.66$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f0…6fb4backed No | 79c | 18.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 80c | 17.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 112 | 81.3%91 W · 21 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1853…68ffbacked No | 79c | 12.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.66 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-02-01?this page
- Will VfB Stuttgart vs. SC Freiburg end in a draw?No won
- Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-02-01?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.