Chess · resolved market
Will Javokhir Sindarov vs. Fabiano Caruana end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x51dafb1d83ea033d214c6424e225bad1b13b6ff0357b46544da149e024baee79
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,690
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,620
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,690 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc8b…f894backed Yes | 71c | 349.11$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.37 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 68c | 191.3$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.08 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a0…c18cbacked Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4e…b812backed No | 31c | 66.3$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +221.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb15c…c161backed No | 32c | 64.27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.7 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8615…2de1backed Yes | 59c | 60.22$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe30…13dbbacked No | 29c | 51.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe41b…321dbacked Yes | 46c | 32.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6408…d6bebacked Yes | 69c | 28.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x266d…083fbacked Yes | 78c | 25.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Javokhir Sindarov vs. Fabiano Caruana end in a draw?this page
- Will Fabiano Caruana win on 2026-04-01 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open?No won
- Will Javokhir Sindarov win on 2026-04-01 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.