La Liga · resolved market
Real Sporting de Gijón vs. UD Almería: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x51e3293a36f3f2e8d9bebefe1e04307e0d7844143e864ab9ae558f1b00b6c992
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,963
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,220
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,963 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 22c | 2,254$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 177 | 31.1%55 W · 122 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 78c | 1,713$1,336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.86 | 417 | 51.8%216 W · 201 L | +18.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Over | 28c | 300$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.57 | 102 | 30.4%31 W · 71 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 68c | 285.07$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.47 | 923 | 45.5%420 W · 503 L | -30.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 77c | 261.34$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.23 | 1,081 | 50.6%547 W · 534 L | +11.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4871…0742backed Under | 80c | 187.75$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.75 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28e2…d3abbacked Over | 20c | 177.75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.55 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 77c | 162$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.26 | 1,038 | 48.1%499 W · 539 L | +17.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 35c | 150.79$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.35 | 1,655 | 43.8%725 W · 930 L | -22.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 70c | 144.94$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.09 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4de…846bbacked Under | 62c | 143.31$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 77c | 74.76$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 999 | 33.4%334 W · 665 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 192 | 58.9%113 W · 79 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 22c | 59.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 124 | 70.2%87 W · 37 L | +30.3wins | +0.24per pick | 46cpaid | +70%equal weight | 73+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Under | 77c | 57.26$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 180 | 46.7%84 W · 96 L | +11.1wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 31c | 36.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d70…d0a6backed Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.6wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 78c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 1,566 | 51.6%808 W · 758 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc45a…1565backed Under | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 78c | 13.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.9 | 1,508 | 38.7%583 W · 925 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Real Sporting de Gijón vs. UD Almería: O/U 4.5this page
- Real Sporting de Gijón vs. UD Almería: O/U 2.5Over won
- Real Sporting de Gijón vs. UD Almería: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.