Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Paul (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x52581a6b09440908c6202b431787ca62b505c24c6db25d32674d1b75a9834487
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Paulof Minaur, Paul
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,582
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,219
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,582 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Paul | 62c | 847.16$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.84 | 7,791 | 47.8%3,722 W · 4,069 L | +39.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Minaur | 34c | 820.45$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.95 | 1,522 | 37.8%576 W · 946 L | +26.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2903…9203backed Paul | 66c | 621.21$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.21 | 1,115 | 60.3%672 W · 443 L | +23.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…5201backed Minaur | 38c | 555$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.9 | 1,454 | 28.5%414 W · 1,040 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae63…9dcdbacked Minaur | 39c | 294.45$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.79 | 206 | 51.9%107 W · 99 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5489…1633backed Minaur | 36c | 165$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Paul | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1,151 | 48.7%560 W · 591 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Paul | 66c | 96.97$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.97 | 2,639 | 46.4%1,224 W · 1,415 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Paul | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 7,157 | 39.8%2,848 W · 4,309 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Paul | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 921 | 38.4%354 W · 567 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6158…81bcbacked Minaur | 36c | 32.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 146 | 50.7%74 W · 72 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94ca…5482backed Paul | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0115…ac79backed Paul | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | -8.1wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -16%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Paul | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 2,804 | 53.7%1,505 W · 1,299 L | +71.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe93c…76ebbacked Paul | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +93.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Paul (+1.5)this page
- Alex de Minaur vs. Tommy Paul: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Hamburg European Open: Alex de Minaur vs Tommy PaulTommy Paul won
- Minaur vs. Paul: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Minaur vs PaulMinaur won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.