Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 54°F or higher on February 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5272174da5e99f0da8c98f032d1ea676d0d0cff139a061350cbccb70dbac7fc0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,238
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,352
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,238 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1558…4f75backed Yes | 14c | 2,142$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.74 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +7.1wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +28%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…8945backed Yes | 13c | 807.47$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.01 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 8c | 499.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 9c | 359.28$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 80c | 358.23$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.02 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 20c | 320.13$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.7 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked Yes | 25c | 262.09$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.08 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 14c | 256.78$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 22c | 236.97$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.52 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 14c | 218.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.34 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 13c | 132.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 14c | 124.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 78c | 124.76$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 78c | 123.6$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.85 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd75…d07ebacked Yes | 24c | 108$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 79c | 98.62$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.38 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8267…f7b7backed Yes | 16c | 77.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…34d2backed Yes | 25c | 56.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 66 | 74.2%49 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf864…496fbacked No | 69c | 52.71$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 32c | 47.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1236…78bebacked Yes | 26c | 39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…7936backed Yes | 34c | 36.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 71c | 34.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 77c | 31.38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ce…2b6fbacked No | 68c | 30.17$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9856…7014backed No | 76c | 26.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 77c | 22.48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x600c…8bd4backed No | 73c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc540…f00dbacked No | 76c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 75cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf904…115fbacked No | 80c | 15.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -33%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b10…f753backed No | 75c | 14.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 54°F or higher on February 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 42-43°F on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on February 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on February 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.