Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on February 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33253cce091e5cc306b2f30e6cf5385f79f2080a67c731727d6b268904c5b25d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,755
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,076
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,755 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 12c | 2,295$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…effbbacked No | 66c | 1,421$941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$941.31 | 116 | 59.5%69 W · 47 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 69c | 578.8$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.95 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 49c | 465$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.27 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 29c | 414.45$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.88 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 35c | 413.33$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.26 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 6c | 359.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1e54…ad5dbacked Yes | 70c | 333.29$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.79 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -36%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 26c | 329.94$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.75 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 65c | 315.95$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.7 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 25c | 305.22$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.75 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 295.27$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.79 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 76c | 260.69$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.18 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 68c | 251.78$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.07 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 44c | 224.2$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.02 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20e0…8501backed No | 7c | 209.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 77c | 180.65$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.67 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 79c | 163.9$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.48 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 63c | 162.56$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.86 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 26c | 146.62$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.98 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 138$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.96 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 70c | 136.71$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.64 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 12c | 129.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.38 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa140…1278backed No | 78c | 127.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 75cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 125.11$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.47 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 25c | 121.23$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.94 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked Yes | 45c | 120.94$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.93 | 251 | 19.9%50 W · 201 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c02…ba96backed Yes | 37c | 120$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.48 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 72c | 119.92$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.51 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 52c | 114.25$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.49 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6a61…35e3backed Yes | 61c | 112.16$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 23c | 106.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.04 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b9…3296backed Yes | 39c | 99.36$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.46 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4c…efa9backed Yes | 34c | 96.93$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 122 | 30.3%37 W · 85 L | -11.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea4…2bd2backed Yes | 66c | 95.89$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.44 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5084…fb85backed Yes | 19c | 89.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.57 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 17cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 32c | 80.93$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.95 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 27c | 80.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.23 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 30c | 79.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 51c | 78.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.99 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1236…78bebacked No | 80c | 75$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.72 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 33c | 73.88$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.4 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9856…7014backed Yes | 20c | 73.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.24 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 14c | 71.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.75 | 385 | 15.6%60 W · 325 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 32c | 70$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.4 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa537…e569backed No | 79c | 69.05$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.81 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 67cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 53c | 68$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.96 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69b2…e50abacked Yes | 39c | 64.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -6.5wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ea…b3fbbacked Yes | 21c | 61.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.9 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a3c…4fecbacked Yes | 28c | 55.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.82 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…ee01backed No | 80c | 55$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 80 | 72.5%58 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb6c…b8e9backed Yes | 26c | 54.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.89 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 54c | 51.75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.86 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0534…4300backed Yes | 79c | 49$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -4.8wins | -0.22per pick | 67cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 22c | 47.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.09 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd11f…77bebacked Yes | 44c | 45.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.55 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 71c | 44.45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.54 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…d55fbacked Yes | 40c | 44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.3 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf18…f5c3backed Yes | 37c | 43.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.51 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed No | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3d91…42c3backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked No | 77c | 38.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab96…1b1abacked Yes | 38c | 38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +131.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x600c…8bd4backed Yes | 38c | 37.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.41 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…34d2backed No | 79c | 36.53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 66 | 74.2%49 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f6…5d2dbacked Yes | 28c | 36.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 77 | 19.5%15 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…ba5cbacked No | 77c | 35.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.53 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +30%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 61c | 35.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 50c | 32.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 54c | 32.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94e7…c00cbacked No | 72c | 30.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed8…42a4backed Yes | 37c | 29.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 69c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 78c | 29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3834…1171backed No | 77c | 27.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 71c | 26.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad78…678cbacked No | 73c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 51c | 22.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b1…4a60backed No | 67c | 21.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6c…d8cdbacked No | 78c | 20.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 73 | 75.3%55 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13a8…642bbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb256…0506backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 74cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf465…8a3bbacked No | 80c | 17.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 40 | 80%32 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc266…04a1backed No | 69c | 17.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…8945backed No | 65c | 17.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebfc…46e8backed No | 70c | 15.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x809c…4861backed No | 77c | 15.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 79c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on February 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 54°F or higher on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 42-43°F on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on February 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.