Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on February 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x548edc5223181e75303e04bdd0c5e0fda9d86e92ffca2692e8f7963a818396f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,123
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,655
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,123 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 52c | 840.84$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.63 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 45c | 565.93$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.99 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 49c | 449.25$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.9 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 67c | 414.25$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.13 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 33c | 291.37$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.04 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 37c | 280.43$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.17 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 8c | 250$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b9…3296backed Yes | 28c | 246.54$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.03 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 72c | 233.02$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.25 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 59c | 229.88$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.96 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 217.63$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.64 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 41c | 216.42$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.38 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 11c | 173.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 58c | 160.3$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.97 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…effbbacked Yes | 45c | 137.92$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.2 | 116 | 59.5%69 W · 47 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 37c | 132.8$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.81 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1c02…ba96backed Yes | 46c | 120$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.8 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 34c | 114.83$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.65 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd75…d07ebacked Yes | 42c | 107.93$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.59 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 17c | 104.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 58c | 96.51$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.53 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 24c | 93.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…8a56backed Yes | 47c | 90.34$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.36 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x531e…a7b3backed Yes | 55c | 85.07$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.63 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 29c | 80$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 43c | 75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.62 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 60c | 68.55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.23 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 26c | 62.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a61…35e3backed Yes | 56c | 55.28$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 55c | 54.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.57 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x861e…37aabacked Yes | 65c | 54.34$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.17 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 48c | 52.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 52c | 51.93$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7817…d4b1backed Yes | 28c | 50.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 54 | 20.4%11 W · 43 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6582…b20bbacked Yes | 61c | 50.48$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf864…496fbacked No | 62c | 48.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…d55fbacked Yes | 31c | 44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 41c | 41.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefd0…7e95backed No | 40c | 40.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 42c | 38.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 31c | 36.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e2…a410backed No | 71c | 35.18$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69b2…e50abacked No | 57c | 34.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -6.5wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…8945backed No | 61c | 34.78$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x252b…dfc9backed No | 61c | 32.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 49c | 32.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa55f…7462backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb6c…b8e9backed Yes | 44c | 29.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 72c | 27.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 58c | 24.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13a8…642bbacked No | 76c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 66c | 22.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 46c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe211…c34fbacked No | 66c | 20.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1997…bed8backed No | 50c | 20.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…4092backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…b5f2backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 71c | 14.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 68c | 14.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on February 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 54°F or higher on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 42-43°F on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on February 27?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.