Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: Karmine Corp GC vs Shopify Rebellion Gold - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x528f854b3df81db17b40caa099175c38f69187e65971878188e862e7fa413eb2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Karmine Corp GCof Karmine Corp GC, Shopify Rebellion Gold
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,756
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,261
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,756 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcdf3…1bb5backed Karmine Corp GC | 14c | 1,125$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$962.01 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf802…d91dbacked Karmine Corp GC | 28c | 751.32$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.91 | 79 | 54.4%43 W · 36 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Karmine Corp GC | 44c | 191.03$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.52 | 395 | 45.8%181 W · 214 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…5695backed Shopify Rebellion Gold | 19c | 190.93$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.46 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb78f…3a77backed Shopify Rebellion Gold | 73c | 115.62$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb877…a13fbacked Shopify Rebellion Gold | 14c | 109.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1c…2a3ebacked Shopify Rebellion Gold | 32c | 107.67$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.24 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4b…8a81backed Karmine Corp GC | 22c | 100.74$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.25 | 621 | 56.4%350 W · 271 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Karmine Corp GC | 49c | 88.41$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.41 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +98.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f55…8fe1backed Shopify Rebellion Gold | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Karmine Corp GC | 56c | 31.84$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 796 | 50%398 W · 398 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9318…a645backed Shopify Rebellion Gold | 75c | 26.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3461…4629backed Shopify Rebellion Gold | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x635e…cb14backed Shopify Rebellion Gold | 79c | 18.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd56b…342dbacked Shopify Rebellion Gold | 76c | 15.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valorant: Karmine Corp GC vs Shopify Rebellion Gold - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- Valorant: Karmine Corp GC vs Shopify Rebellion Gold (BO3)Shopify Rebellion Gold won
- Valorant: Karmine Corp GC vs Shopify Rebellion Gold - Map 1 WinnerShopify Rebellion Gold won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.