College Football · resolved market
San Diego State vs. Nevada Wolf Pack
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x52addc8c0fa7c4d58cda74b63751c49152e29e180550724d25e35a5d5167c5b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Diego Stateof San Diego State, Nevada Wolf Pack
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $78,313
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,625
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,313 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaefe…1e4abacked San Diego State | 70c | 35,526$25,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,504.04 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Nevada Wolf Pack | 30c | 20,358$6,107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,107.31 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Nevada Wolf Pack | 29c | 20,056$5,902 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,901.98 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8b…01aabacked Nevada Wolf Pack | 31c | 9,292$2,881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,880.52 | 83 | 31.3%26 W · 57 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a3…c3a6backed San Diego State | 70c | 9,000$6,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,700 | 116 | 53.4%62 W · 54 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked San Diego State | 69c | 6,582$4,539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,043.26 | 204 | 50.5%103 W · 101 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Nevada Wolf Pack | 29c | 5,000$1,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,450 | 272 | 46%125 W · 147 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked San Diego State | 72c | 4,713$3,391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,322.31 | 684 | 40.8%279 W · 405 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16aa…d710backed Nevada Wolf Pack | 13c | 2,286$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…0bd2backed Nevada Wolf Pack | 29c | 1,570$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked San Diego State | 71c | 1,567$1,113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.43 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eae…fbaebacked San Diego State | 71c | 1,567$1,113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7f…105bbacked San Diego State | 71c | 1,421$1,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebd…a63dbacked Nevada Wolf Pack | 29c | 1,420$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked San Diego State | 74c | 1,184$873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.88 | 405 | 41.2%167 W · 238 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…68fcbacked Nevada Wolf Pack | 29c | 1,100$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319 | 471 | 31.4%148 W · 323 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Nevada Wolf Pack | 29c | 693.98$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.25 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Nevada Wolf Pack | 30c | 666.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 224 | 37.5%84 W · 140 L | -17.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed San Diego State | 71c | 659$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.11 | 261 | 47.9%125 W · 136 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked San Diego State | 70c | 599.11$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.5 | 503 | 58.1%292 W · 211 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked San Diego State | 70c | 512.43$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.73 | 127 | 50.4%64 W · 63 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9a…5b99backed San Diego State | 69c | 419.28$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.98 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fec…c965backed San Diego State | 70c | 291.92$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.58 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -39%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Nevada Wolf Pack | 29c | 175$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.75 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked San Diego State | 70c | 166.67$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d28…932abacked Nevada Wolf Pack | 29c | 150$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 176 | 34.7%61 W · 115 L | +11.6wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked San Diego State | 70c | 150$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +12.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Nevada Wolf Pack | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 280 | 32.9%92 W · 188 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Nevada Wolf Pack | 30c | 99.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.69 | 160 | 44.4%71 W · 89 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9123…9dd3backed San Diego State | 71c | 92.64$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.31 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Nevada Wolf Pack | 30c | 87.94$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.38 | 220 | 30.5%67 W · 153 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…8ab1backed San Diego State | 70c | 87.14$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Nevada Wolf Pack | 30c | 82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 402 | 44.8%180 W · 222 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2c…4ae8backed Nevada Wolf Pack | 32c | 78.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked Nevada Wolf Pack | 35c | 68.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 140 | 55%77 W · 63 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…3099backed Nevada Wolf Pack | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 168 | 39.9%67 W · 101 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked Nevada Wolf Pack | 30c | 63.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2cb…ac5abacked Nevada Wolf Pack | 33c | 59.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08d8…dcd4backed Nevada Wolf Pack | 32c | 43.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x464f…3ef7backed Nevada Wolf Pack | 30c | 37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeccf…53cbbacked San Diego State | 71c | 37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93e7…9e61backed San Diego State | 71c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 55cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e02…0d34backed San Diego State | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bb…1a1abacked San Diego State | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego State vs. Nevada Wolf Packthis page
- San Diego State vs. Nevada Wolf Pack: O/U 41.5Over won
- San Diego State vs. Nevada Wolf Pack: O/U 42.5Over won
- Spread: San Diego State (-7.5)San Diego State won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.