South American Leagues · resolved market
São Paulo FC vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x52c705cd41cfa4c9baa6b593d1c942c2f0ec90db909d98b892b74a7bd7a4aeeb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,125
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,185
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,125 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 75c | 3,743$2,808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,808.13 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 25c | 2,400$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,799.98 | 367 | 27%99 W · 268 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 64c | 1,790$1,145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,145.22 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 28c | 1,434$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,039.36 | 218 | 39.4%86 W · 132 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Over | 38c | 1,200$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$744 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 51c | 999.2$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.55 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 70c | 780.58$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.32 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Over | 38c | 613.43$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.46 | 250 | 21.6%54 W · 196 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 48c | 480.7$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.96 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 26c | 405.88$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.35 | 493 | 41%202 W · 291 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 55c | 303.63$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.62 | 769 | 51.5%396 W · 373 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1045…06c8backed Over | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.71 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…b518backed Under | 52c | 230.77$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…f219backed Over | 18c | 227.27$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.27 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 69c | 209.17$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.51 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -6.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 51c | 156.86$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.86 | 359 | 58.8%211 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Over | 34c | 147.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.05 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 60c | 105.36$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.28 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…f0bebacked Over | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 26c | 91.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.68 | 449 | 39.2%176 W · 273 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Under | 40c | 49.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 270 | 50.7%137 W · 133 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5c6…b65ebacked Under | 64c | 47.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd5…39a0backed Over | 37c | 40.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 39c | 40.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed Over | 36c | 37.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 134 | 41%55 W · 79 L | -14.6wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b8…2dd5backed Under | 80c | 37.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec9…82dabacked Over | 38c | 36.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x310a…52fbbacked Over | 37c | 32.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc16c…a4c8backed Under | 64c | 30.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…7a3fbacked Over | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0b…bc43backed Under | 64c | 29.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2a…a72fbacked Over | 38c | 29.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1c…60e3backed Under | 64c | 28.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x532a…bfefbacked Under | 57c | 18.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- São Paulo FC vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: CR Flamengo (-1.5)São Paulo FC won
- São Paulo FC vs. CR Flamengo: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- São Paulo FC vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 1.5Over won
- São Paulo FC vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 3.5Under won
- São Paulo FC vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.