South American Leagues · resolved market
São Paulo FC vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x847a03df47eeb8545a0ad6ca9bc66feed97a6e82ffb2d2f5bae7eb1a4ce9dbb2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,651
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,528
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,651 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 63c | 2,292$1,456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$836.66 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 10c | 992$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.2 | 367 | 27%99 W · 268 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Over | 19c | 610.51$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.43 | 250 | 21.6%54 W · 196 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9e…4580backed Over | 49c | 608.37$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.24 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 41c | 575.09$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.1 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 69c | 491.3$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.15 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5b…0584backed Over | 46c | 437.32$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ef…9fadbacked Over | 48c | 275.45$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.06 | 123 | 54.5%67 W · 56 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 19c | 261.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa60a…1613backed Over | 37c | 253$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.56 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 769 | 51.5%396 W · 373 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd5…ef85backed Over | 44c | 196.11$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.6 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +4.5wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x15ac…f3babacked Over | 63c | 108.81$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.31 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 55c | 103.75$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.07 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Under | 64c | 79.08$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.85 | 270 | 50.7%137 W · 133 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf6…c75bbacked Under | 20c | 58.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.04 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x995e…534cbacked Under | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…4287backed Under | 57c | 45.18$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 45c | 35.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 218 | 39.4%86 W · 132 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed Over | 45c | 33.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 134 | 41%55 W · 79 L | -14.6wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd18b…1e04backed Over | 49c | 30.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 44cpaid | +87.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 60c | 29.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19e7…e762backed Under | 55c | 20.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- São Paulo FC vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: CR Flamengo (-1.5)São Paulo FC won
- São Paulo FC vs. CR Flamengo: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- São Paulo FC vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 1.5Over won
- São Paulo FC vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 2.5Over won
- São Paulo FC vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.