Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on August 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x52d57baef71323265a375ec46d303a54f56e9894b7fc32e92478ab4a4c66ea67
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,853
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,575
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,853 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 15c | 770.28$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.63 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8e…f599backed Yes | 7c | 470.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.84 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 22c | 455.31$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.57 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 9c | 385.11$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 6c | 282.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x506f…e8bbbacked Yes | 7c | 239.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d9…c3cbbacked Yes | 56c | 174.57$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.12 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 76c | 156$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.16 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 28c | 133.43$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.11 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…71f5backed Yes | 49c | 122.51$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.75 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 29c | 115.75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.73 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 10c | 102.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd4…6084backed Yes | 15c | 96.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 135 | 34.1%46 W · 89 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…f6a0backed Yes | 21c | 89.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed Yes | 28c | 78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 15c | 76.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe2…f54abacked Yes | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 50c | 69.47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.74 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13d4…9705backed Yes | 65c | 61.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…9a58backed Yes | 54c | 61.32$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.36 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed Yes | 50c | 60.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9f…d7c1backed Yes | 66c | 60.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 40c | 56.97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.45 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 22c | 50.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 22c | 48.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 39c | 43.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 56c | 42.86$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.77 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40cd…a73bbacked No | 80c | 40.15$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 79c | 37.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 65c | 35.53$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 35c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 35c | 34.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbb97…603bbacked No | 78c | 30.23$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 52c | 23.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 66c | 20.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 52c | 20.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 62c | 17.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on August 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on August 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on August 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.