Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on August 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04d83bb79f9b063b4de318a7b29697b0e59b5bb7c5d97e9fe6f52cd1041d3430
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,585
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,686
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,585 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 31c | 236.89$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.45 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 190.61$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.6 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 19c | 175.61$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.86 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 45c | 166.66$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.97 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 33c | 161.8$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.22 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 51c | 161.67$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.1 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 53c | 151.02$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.02 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 69c | 149.95$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.47 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 59c | 112.48$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.58 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…f954backed No | 48c | 103.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 66c | 97.7$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.22 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 59c | 96.36$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.91 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 43c | 93.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 49c | 81.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.84 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 65c | 80.39$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.15 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked Yes | 66c | 78.64$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.47 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 65c | 77.37$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.85 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | -14.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed No | 36c | 67.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 45c | 66.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.44 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 65.74$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.03 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x506f…e8bbbacked No | 68c | 60$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 33c | 58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.86 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 39c | 51.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.66 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 29c | 50.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.41 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 62c | 50.46$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.41 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 40c | 46.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 40c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.85 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 34c | 44.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.46 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 40c | 41.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.98 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 43c | 40.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 31c | 38.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.76 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3450…cee8backed Yes | 57c | 38.53$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 67c | 38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 60c | 37.79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 29c | 36.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 36c | 34.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b88…63dfbacked Yes | 51c | 32.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc9…6dfdbacked No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 205 | 74.6%153 W · 52 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed No | 65c | 30.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 53c | 26.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 46c | 23.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f9…6114backed Yes | 63c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 74cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 70c | 14.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on August 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on August 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.