Bundesliga · resolved market
Spread: Bayer Leverkusen (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x52d6b0c3d172f514761491541fe75f5891486f6d21e74facf79f4cebc792f61a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bayer Leverkusenof Bayer Leverkusen, VfL Wolfsburg
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,296
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,136
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,296 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Bayer Leverkusen | 43c | 460$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.1 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked VfL Wolfsburg | 16c | 450$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.75 | 210 | 41.9%88 W · 122 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Bayer Leverkusen | 55c | 304.2$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.56 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked VfL Wolfsburg | 57c | 250$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.5 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed VfL Wolfsburg | 76c | 180$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.8 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked Bayer Leverkusen | 27c | 146.65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.05 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Bayer Leverkusen | 26c | 126.85$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.87 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x170c…7fe3backed Bayer Leverkusen | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -7.2wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed VfL Wolfsburg | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -4.8wins | -0.17per pick | 68cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked VfL Wolfsburg | 74c | 86$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.64 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed VfL Wolfsburg | 74c | 35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aca…dfd3backed VfL Wolfsburg | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4022…f352backed VfL Wolfsburg | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…6b35backed VfL Wolfsburg | 76c | 15.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 65cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bayer Leverkusen (-1.5)this page
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. Bayer Leverkusen: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. Bayer Leverkusen: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.