Mls · resolved market
Will CF Montréal win on 2026-04-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x52dc6416b866e6e8e0ff2e51d902f19b7471fb742e38e5f77ad362412066ebf7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,866
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,128
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,866 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Yes | 8c | 4,998$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 190 | 44.7%85 W · 105 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…764ebacked Yes | 11c | 1,901$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.71 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa732…2723backed Yes | 11c | 1,885$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6006…13afbacked Yes | 27c | 1,201$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 78c | 959.78$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.38 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 11c | 940.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 77c | 500$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 293 | 70.3%206 W · 87 L | +41.2wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3f11…3892backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe777…c734backed Yes | 20c | 200.08$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.53 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e14…82a5backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 6c | 199.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe136…b79fbacked Yes | 25c | 176.52$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.83 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -48%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 76c | 173$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.17 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95ec…e392backed Yes | 12c | 166.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 24c | 140.07$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.62 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 413 | 39%161 W · 252 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked No | 72c | 89.29$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf2…1958backed Yes | 28c | 89.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 13c | 87.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 372 | 49.2%183 W · 189 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Yes | 25c | 64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 114 | 41.2%47 W · 67 L | -10.3wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed No | 75c | 64$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 76c | 63.83$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 74c | 43.59$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8900…a444backed No | 76c | 31.42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe10f…c59fbacked No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 77cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd187…6e50backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36cb…5bb7backed No | 75c | 17.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb71…288ebacked No | 76c | 15.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.28per pick | 51cpaid | -68%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…4f4cbacked No | 76c | 15.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee7…4c1abacked No | 76c | 15.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8584…6b7dbacked No | 76c | 15.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8a…02acbacked No | 76c | 15.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -3.8wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed No | 76c | 15.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…93ebbacked No | 76c | 15.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…cbcdbacked No | 76c | 15.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CF Montréal win on 2026-04-04?this page
- Will New England Revolution vs. CF Montréal end in a draw?No won
- Will New England Revolution win on 2026-04-04?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.