College Football · resolved market
Spread: SMU Mustangs (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x530294ef3c0d7f6391612cd1958bfdda3addf462f5256bdbfc60c678798de42e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- SMU Mustangsof SMU Mustangs, Louisville
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,311
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,389
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,311 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked SMU Mustangs | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 381 | 42.5%162 W · 219 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Louisville | 52c | 1,500$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Louisville | 48c | 1,250$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 485 | 46.8%227 W · 258 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked SMU Mustangs | 48c | 711.75$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.11 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed SMU Mustangs | 51c | 630$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.7 | 243 | 48.1%117 W · 126 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Louisville | 49c | 496$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.04 | 524 | 49.4%259 W · 265 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Louisville | 48c | 411.68$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.05 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x068f…4594backed SMU Mustangs | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -28%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Louisville | 52c | 62.19$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.21 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Louisville | 57c | 55.52$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.56 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +21.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Louisville | 48c | 47.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb90a…7a06backed Louisville | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 66cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d3…ada0backed SMU Mustangs | 52c | 32.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c1…416abacked SMU Mustangs | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 100 | 59%59 W · 41 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3914…2103backed SMU Mustangs | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…8163backed SMU Mustangs | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: SMU Mustangs (-3.5)this page
- Louisville vs. SMU MustangsSMU Mustangs won
- Louisville vs. SMU Mustangs: O/U 49.5Under won
- Louisville vs. SMU Mustangs: O/U 50.5Under won
- Louisville vs. SMU Mustangs: O/U 51.5Under won
- Louisville vs. SMU Mustangs: O/U 52.5Under won
- O/U 53.5Under won
- Spread: SMU Mustangs (-2.5)SMU Mustangs won
- Spread: SMU Mustangs (-4.5)SMU Mustangs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.