TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

College Football · resolved market

Louisville vs. SMU Mustangs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
SMU Mustangsof Louisville, SMU Mustangs
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$224,285
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$230,382

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $224,285 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 182 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in College Football
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1e3a…4033backed SMU Mustangs64c39,255$25,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,255.1419362.2%120 W · 73 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Louisville36c20,447$7,361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,360.9416234%55 W · 107 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-23.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a61…b560backed Louisville18c13,115$2,313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,312.666838.2%26 W · 42 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Louisville37c10,000$3,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,7005639.3%22 W · 34 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked SMU Mustangs59c6,489$3,851 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,638.4781847.9%392 W · 426 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Louisville26c5,826$1,531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,530.7158850.2%295 W · 293 L+23.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f8b…01aabacked Louisville36c5,000$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8008331.3%26 W · 57 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked SMU Mustangs63c5,000$3,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,849.9938142.5%162 W · 219 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked SMU Mustangs62c4,619$2,864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,755.122,01349.6%999 W · 1,014 L+24.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Louisville35c4,132$1,426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,425.9315751%80 W · 77 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Louisville37c4,081$1,509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,509.4652449.4%259 W · 265 L-2.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Louisville31c3,075$961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$961.0162843.6%274 W · 354 L+7.4wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x569e…4175backed SMU Mustangs57c2,977$1,697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,280.23650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Louisville16c2,870$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453.9364841.2%267 W · 381 L+12.4wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-20.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Louisville38c2,772$1,053 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,053.3611851.7%61 W · 57 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Louisville37c2,325$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$860.2521644.9%97 W · 119 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Louisville30c2,314$691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$691.2840541.2%167 W · 238 L+1.8wins0.00per pick41cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed SMU Mustangs63c2,083$1,312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$770.6826147.9%125 W · 136 L-0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked Louisville29c1,995$579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$578.5517443.7%76 W · 98 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb40…a284backed Louisville39c1,789$695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$694.6734529.9%103 W · 242 L-21.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-26.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Louisville38c1,788$679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$679.4420450.5%103 W · 101 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed SMU Mustangs70c1,747$1,223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$524.1586243.7%377 W · 485 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked Louisville37c1,554$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$574.86520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick46cpaid-56.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Louisville14c1,473$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.5813933.1%46 W · 93 L-8.4wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-45%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed SMU Mustangs79c1,363$1,077 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.226244.3%116 W · 146 L-1.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18cb…5dfcbacked SMU Mustangs63c1,349$850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.21475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+22.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf548…9484backed Louisville6c1,338$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.2630%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Louisville37c1,330$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.651,09041.7%455 W · 635 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7435…f3c7backed Louisville38c1,303$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x014c…f5b6backed SMU Mustangs64c1,248$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.779048.9%44 W · 46 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Louisville38c1,056$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.1265945.2%298 W · 361 L-13.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed SMU Mustangs64c1,000$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3601947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22e6…409fbacked Louisville36c1,000$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3602725.9%7 W · 20 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-56.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Louisville37c1,000$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37010742.1%45 W · 62 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-23.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Louisville41c975.78$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.1550358.1%292 W · 211 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Louisville38c969.18$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.2914743.5%64 W · 83 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x260c…7130backed Louisville37c950$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.53132.3%10 W · 21 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-22%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Louisville38c937$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.697830.8%24 W · 54 L-8.3wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-39.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Louisville27c825.78$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.321241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+74.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc36b…a540backed Louisville21c824.27$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.311020%2 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-64.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Louisville36c806.62$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.3852641.8%220 W · 306 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d3b…b511backed SMU Mustangs63c791.11$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.111233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-48.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x00b5…b3cabacked SMU Mustangs64c781.33$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.333680.6%29 W · 7 L+5.3wins+0.15per pick66cpaid+21.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked SMU Mustangs64c781.25$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.257136.6%26 W · 45 L-7.1wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-26.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Louisville36c762.99$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.689457.4%54 W · 40 L+5.7wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+12.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4aa9…1351backed Louisville35c588.31$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.3880%0 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8717…49a8backed SMU Mustangs56c460.46$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.621348.8%104 W · 109 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5203…0312backed Louisville36c449.96$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9cc0…73acbacked SMU Mustangs64c424.23$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.232100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+44.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb627…4d11backed Louisville38c421.79$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked SMU Mustangs54c371.76$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.0149443.7%216 W · 278 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Louisville37c348$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.629249%143 W · 149 L+0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5ae…e127backed Louisville37c345$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb123…f594backed Louisville36c310$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6077…f4f4backed Louisville27c301.68$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.014447.7%21 W · 23 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x834b…60e0backed SMU Mustangs63c300$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56fe…849ebacked Louisville35c299.99$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed SMU Mustangs72c299.97$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.9910445.2%47 W · 57 L-5.8wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x61c1…0513backed SMU Mustangs69c295.12$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.545251.9%27 W · 25 L-5.8wins-0.11per pick63cpaid-17.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xdc86…b983backed Louisville36c289.76$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf10b…2041backed Louisville37c270.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006654.5%36 W · 30 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x08b5…5a6ebacked Louisville37c270.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002744.4%12 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf76d…7c42backed Louisville38c263.16$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.19per pick34cpaid-71.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Louisville15c259.65$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.9626940.5%109 W · 160 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-16.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb353…19bebacked SMU Mustangs63c250$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-20.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed SMU Mustangs62c249.95$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.9813242.4%56 W · 76 L+0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31ed…2927backed SMU Mustangs57c229.12$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.124100%4 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+66.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x209e…8bb4backed SMU Mustangs64c222$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.923537.1%13 W · 22 L-3.9wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-22.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9da3…a7efbacked SMU Mustangs64c220.31$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.314450%22 W · 22 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Louisville6c218$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0854243.2%234 W · 308 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed SMU Mustangs58c217.7$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.8193548.4%453 W · 482 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84b8…1193backed Louisville46c217.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005724.6%14 W · 43 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-35.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4319…6d44backed Louisville37c215$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xac01…2d77backed Louisville36c205.69$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.992015%3 W · 17 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-34%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Louisville41c200$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8220950.2%105 W · 104 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2a4…caf5backed Louisville6c200$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12476.4%3 W · 44 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-67.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa95d…c3a5backed Louisville36c200$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe45c…1375backed SMU Mustangs64c200$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$721100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdd8…5999backed SMU Mustangs63c200$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-47.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ea9…a015backed Louisville37c200$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0df8…3e3dbacked Louisville43c199.99$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$864736.2%17 W · 30 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-28.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Louisville25c195.54$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.5155350.3%278 W · 275 L+9.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Louisville19c185.75$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.9526939.8%107 W · 162 L-10.9wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-24.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbc9e…19ddbacked SMU Mustangs58c172.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.416100%6 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+63.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed SMU Mustangs63c160$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.256844.5%253 W · 315 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0cd…b74cbacked Louisville21c160$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.825819.8%51 W · 207 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-26%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Louisville37c154.72$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.2528440.8%116 W · 168 L-10.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7235…d870backed Louisville37c150$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.5757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48e8…baf3backed SMU Mustangs64c140$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.4333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick64cpaid-47.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa843…8f3fbacked Louisville38c136.84$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$522540%10 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Louisville37c135.14$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030253%160 W · 142 L+10.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a1b…d6cbbacked SMU Mustangs69c132.52$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.08250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dd4…1b50backed SMU Mustangs64c132$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.5220757.5%119 W · 88 L+13.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x46fe…a43dbacked SMU Mustangs64c117.19$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.191478.6%11 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick67cpaid+21%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3ae9…74acbacked SMU Mustangs70c109.11$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334247.6%20 W · 22 L+0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb6a…857abacked Louisville37c108.11$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401827.8%5 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick28cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f85…b41fbacked Louisville23c107.95$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253520%7 W · 28 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20e4…b96fbacked SMU Mustangs71c105.7$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.72050%10 W · 10 L+2.8wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+29.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfe8a…cfadbacked Louisville43c105.1$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.144235.7%15 W · 27 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Louisville19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1947331.5%149 W · 324 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.