TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

College Football · resolved market

Spread: SMU Mustangs (-4.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
SMU Mustangsof SMU Mustangs, Louisville
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$12,473
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,138

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,473 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 8 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in College Football
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Louisville51c6,734$3,441 inLost-$3,440.782,01349.6%999 W · 1,014 L+24.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed SMU Mustangs50c4,570$2,274 inWon+$2,295.738546%177 W · 208 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked SMU Mustangs49c2,000$980 inWon+$1,02038142.5%162 W · 219 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x094e…f10bbacked SMU Mustangs48c555$266 inWon+$288.66949.3%34 W · 35 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Louisville55c547.27$300 inLost-$30013444%59 W · 75 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7f6…5ac8backed SMU Mustangs48c104.17$50 inWon+$54.173246.9%15 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed SMU Mustangs46c100$46 inWon+$5465945.2%298 W · 361 L-13.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked SMU Mustangs48c22.2$11 inWon+$11.5426846.3%124 W · 144 L+7.2wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.