Europa Conference League · resolved market
FC St. Gallen vs. FC Sheriff Tiraspol: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5314499925a0f866c613294dbb646b11553f023a690dd6af67345536091ca129
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,186
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,812
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,186 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 29c | 1,199$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.63 | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | +27.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 10c | 645.32$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.64 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03c9…d8c1backed Over | 71c | 556$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.24 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +6.8wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3968…85b5backed Over | 71c | 556$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.34 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +8.4wins | +0.23per pick | 46cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Under | 8c | 487$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.98 | 351 | 46.2%162 W · 189 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 34c | 281.87$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.84 | 969 | 47.5%460 W · 509 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Over | 66c | 275.92$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.81 | 182 | 52.7%96 W · 86 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 63c | 104$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.48 | 218 | 40.4%88 W · 130 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 71c | 51.5$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 155 | 62.6%97 W · 58 L | +22.9wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed Under | 37c | 44.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 66c | 30.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | -7.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 37c | 29.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 254 | 40.6%103 W · 151 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 71c | 27.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +14.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 71c | 17.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 179 | 58.1%104 W · 75 L | +17.0wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC St. Gallen vs. FC Sheriff Tiraspol: O/U 2.5this page
- FC St. Gallen vs. FC Sheriff Tiraspol: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- FC St. Gallen vs. FC Sheriff Tiraspol: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC St. Gallen vs. FC Sheriff Tiraspol: Both Teams to Score in First HalfYes won
- FC St. Gallen vs. FC Sheriff Tiraspol: FC Sheriff Tiraspol O/U 2.5Under won
- FC St. Gallen vs. FC Sheriff Tiraspol: O/U 0.5Over won
- FC St. Gallen vs. FC Sheriff Tiraspol: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC St. Gallen vs. FC Sheriff Tiraspol: O/U 4.5Over won
- FC St. Gallen vs. FC Sheriff Tiraspol: O/U 5.5Over won
- FC St. Gallen vs. FC Sheriff Tiraspol: Team to AdvanceFC St. Gallen won
- Spread: FC St. Gallen (-1.5)FC St. Gallen won
- Spread: FC St. Gallen (-2.5)FC St. Gallen won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.