Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Ivory vs Team Nemesis - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x53358a8e8e428c2d673ff04e472242cc761b3c9b09ca9d8b109013413f0f51df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Nemesisof Ivory, Team Nemesis
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,111
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,522
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,111 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed Ivory | 3c | 1,666$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Ivory | 36c | 1,620$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.14 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x758f…dfb7backed Ivory | 50c | 746.64$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.63 | 346 | 67.9%235 W · 111 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x149a…49d0backed Team Nemesis | 76c | 657.5$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.8 | 507 | 69.2%351 W · 156 L | +33.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…cd80backed Team Nemesis | 50c | 607.83$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.94 | 551 | 47.5%262 W · 289 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66fb…9f72backed Team Nemesis | 61c | 606.54$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.19 | 545 | 56.5%308 W · 237 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked Ivory | 25c | 543.61$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.96 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Ivory | 26c | 506.66$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.41 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Team Nemesis | 67c | 502.08$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.22 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3d…cfffbacked Team Nemesis | 65c | 493.67$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.78 | 367 | 59.1%217 W · 150 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Ivory | 4c | 430$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x368d…d853backed Team Nemesis | 60c | 399.27$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.51 | 615 | 48.8%300 W · 315 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Team Nemesis | 76c | 305.62$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.3 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9120…ae70backed Team Nemesis | 68c | 217.67$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.59 | 210 | 62.4%131 W · 79 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Ivory | 34c | 207.02$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.97 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Ivory | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 656 | 25.6%168 W · 488 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Team Nemesis | 76c | 187.66$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.19 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06d9…7cfbbacked Team Nemesis | 64c | 185.56$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.46 | 201 | 51.2%103 W · 98 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c07…5feabacked Team Nemesis | 75c | 167.45$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.86 | 179 | 54.2%97 W · 82 L | -12.6wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Team Nemesis | 60c | 108.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.59 | 735 | 54.7%402 W · 333 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Team Nemesis | 70c | 100.35$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.33 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa35c…a113backed Team Nemesis | 76c | 98.68$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 617 | 45.7%282 W · 335 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d59…bdf3backed Ivory | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 675 | 55%371 W · 304 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Team Nemesis | 61c | 60.26$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9be…a0c1backed Team Nemesis | 52c | 58.38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.01 | 252 | 53.2%134 W · 118 L | +20.3wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf3be…f543backed Ivory | 45c | 42.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 254 | 57.9%147 W · 107 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x127e…cca1backed Team Nemesis | 62c | 39.09$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 461 | 50.8%234 W · 227 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3e…1316backed Ivory | 55c | 21.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Ivory vs Team Nemesis - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Ivory vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - DreamLeague Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier PlayoffsIvory won
- Dota 2: Ivory vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 WinnerIvory won
- Game Handicap: Nem (-1.5) vs Ivory (+1.5)Ivory won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.