Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Ivory vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x960584a4ba4d0b4b78804b2fb8c81c98ab8a612df4363d964eed27b8980b8c9c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ivoryof Ivory, Team Nemesis
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,858
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,859
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,858 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x87da…53d1backed Team Nemesis | 65c | 2,436$1,572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,571.71 | 965 | 57.4%554 W · 411 L | +49.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05a7…42e6backed Team Nemesis | 70c | 2,421$1,694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,693.83 | 410 | 56.8%233 W · 177 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd604…ee57backed Team Nemesis | 43c | 1,905$819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$819.1 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Ivory | 35c | 1,796$621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,174.52 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3d…cfffbacked Team Nemesis | 59c | 1,681$993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$993.06 | 367 | 59.1%217 W · 150 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b99…8bddbacked Ivory | 53c | 1,431$759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$671.44 | 774 | 58.5%453 W · 321 L | +75.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Ivory | 29c | 1,353$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$965.7 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa27c…ab67backed Team Nemesis | 69c | 1,200$828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$827.99 | 799 | 59.4%475 W · 324 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07fa…f5cdbacked Ivory | 29c | 822.22$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.82 | 462 | 40.7%188 W · 274 L | +15.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Ivory | 31c | 799.45$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.31 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0a…320abacked Ivory | 71c | 597.24$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.63 | 920 | 56.4%519 W · 401 L | +78.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed Team Nemesis | 37c | 590.37$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.08 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…319ebacked Ivory | 25c | 550.44$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.83 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab1…9b4fbacked Team Nemesis | 75c | 541.46$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.9 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf7…4b3abacked Ivory | 71c | 505.35$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.55 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f03…77dcbacked Ivory | 35c | 495.63$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.47 | 292 | 40.4%118 W · 174 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d30…11f1backed Ivory | 34c | 484.06$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.81 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Ivory | 56c | 442.96$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.8 | 576 | 54.5%314 W · 262 L | +29.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f0…26edbacked Team Nemesis | 66c | 378.3$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.08 | 338 | 67.8%229 W · 109 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd83…7d7cbacked Ivory | 45c | 338.44$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.14 | 147 | 47.6%70 W · 77 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3c…0518backed Ivory | 41c | 332.23$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.67 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 36cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9b…cbe5backed Ivory | 31c | 309.23$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.37 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98a7…b766backed Ivory | 62c | 276.21$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.81 | 602 | 51.2%308 W · 294 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Ivory | 54c | 274.55$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.24 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x672d…dbd7backed Ivory | 61c | 239.47$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.94 | 400 | 47.5%190 W · 210 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e19…d2b0backed Ivory | 57c | 230.63$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.17 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c07…5feabacked Team Nemesis | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 179 | 54.2%97 W · 82 L | -12.6wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72be…c534backed Ivory | 35c | 191.78$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.51 | 577 | 35%202 W · 375 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Ivory | 59c | 181.17$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.43 | 269 | 56.1%151 W · 118 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Team Nemesis | 59c | 178.23$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.99 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd055…28d0backed Ivory | 70c | 170.97$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.29 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | +12.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Ivory | 44c | 164.15$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.61 | 735 | 54.7%402 W · 333 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Ivory | 37c | 149.41$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.41 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5799…db25backed Team Nemesis | 26c | 136.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.21 | 460 | 49.8%229 W · 231 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ef…840bbacked Team Nemesis | 72c | 136.37$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.33 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0c…3ccebacked Ivory | 28c | 128.11$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.24 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9be…a0c1backed Ivory | 48c | 119.49$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.03 | 252 | 53.2%134 W · 118 L | +20.3wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa35c…a113backed Team Nemesis | 72c | 102.42$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.74 | 617 | 45.7%282 W · 335 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Team Nemesis | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Ivory | 30c | 96.49$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.57 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…7afcbacked Team Nemesis | 63c | 79.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.3 | 953 | 42.2%402 W · 551 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Ivory | 41c | 70.94$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.95 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…a8cfbacked Ivory | 77c | 64.04$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 353 | 70%247 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Team Nemesis | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 209 | 54.5%114 W · 95 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaed7…baa3backed Team Nemesis | 42c | 39.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 316 | 48.7%154 W · 162 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Team Nemesis | 56c | 39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 653 | 37.2%243 W · 410 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f12…3e35backed Team Nemesis | 44c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 99 | 46.5%46 W · 53 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06d9…7cfbbacked Ivory | 57c | 34.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 201 | 51.2%103 W · 98 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad09…612cbacked Ivory | 56c | 34.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x127e…cca1backed Ivory | 62c | 31.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 461 | 50.8%234 W · 227 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c29…f645backed Ivory | 45c | 30.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked Ivory | 46c | 25.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 405 | 34.6%140 W · 265 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…bd5abacked Team Nemesis | 63c | 24.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 468 | 72.2%338 W · 130 L | +36.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd93…da30backed Ivory | 59c | 23.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +97.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1f…aa39backed Team Nemesis | 50c | 21.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 450 | 61.6%277 W · 173 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d03…b8a6backed Ivory | 74c | 17.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 214 | 65%139 W · 75 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b2…4defbacked Ivory | 79c | 12.96$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 59cpaid | +94.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Ivory vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Ivory vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - DreamLeague Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier PlayoffsIvory won
- Dota 2: Ivory vs Team Nemesis - Game 1 WinnerTeam Nemesis won
- Game Handicap: Nem (-1.5) vs Ivory (+1.5)Ivory won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.