Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on April 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x534049231d37e401067480f9ed7bdb15ec35e9dafcca7267500d9f4b1d2700f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,774
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,361
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,774 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 52c | 841.7$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.09 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed No | 6c | 586.6$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 16c | 362.53$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.79 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc52e…65fbbacked Yes | 22c | 269.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.19 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked No | 77c | 268.34$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.75 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 36c | 254.48$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.9 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 17c | 252.65$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.02 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…17a9backed Yes | 20c | 231.71$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.3 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 47c | 225.61$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.17 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 22c | 199.98$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.98 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 179.21$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.07 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 80c | 170.92$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.17 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 30c | 160.86$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.24 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf0…ab54backed Yes | 25c | 159.83$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.22 | 163 | 20.2%33 W · 130 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 21c | 158.71$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.81 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 41c | 145.52$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.24 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5485…0864backed No | 24c | 127.2$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…48c1backed Yes | 24c | 99.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.99 | 197 | 20.8%41 W · 156 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38cc…5c4fbacked Yes | 19c | 95.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.73 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 46c | 89.5$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.42 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac71…5a63backed No | 76c | 85.98$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 37c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 35c | 71.34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.66 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed Yes | 26c | 70.21$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.68 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 38c | 67.51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.13 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3a…8daabacked No | 76c | 60.46$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.22 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed Yes | 41c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.52 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 27c | 55.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.39 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1565…3a47backed No | 76c | 51.94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.67 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87f0…85f7backed Yes | 27c | 49.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.87 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 73c | 48.41$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.39 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked No | 60c | 36.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…137ebacked No | 76c | 33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 136 | 63.2%86 W · 50 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 31c | 32.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 77c | 29.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 62c | 28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8d…f1e3backed No | 76c | 24.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 32 | 81.3%26 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 73cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe798…5204backed No | 78c | 17.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -4.2wins | -0.20per pick | 63cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 78c | 16.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb8…89b9backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +23%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on April 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on April 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.