Serie A · resolved market
Will Napoli vs. Pisa SC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x534eb46998186c54e807b75f95d886b8f2bc245558a385615966197664427206
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,633
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,870
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,633 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 17c | 15,446$2,672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,671.91 | 2,579 | 45.6%1,175 W · 1,404 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 17c | 10,000$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,700 | 212 | 58.5%124 W · 88 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d20…f0aebacked Yes | 17c | 5,888$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x040d…1a5ebacked Yes | 8c | 5,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a56…85f8backed Yes | 17c | 4,113$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 17c | 2,010$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.6 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e93…de60backed Yes | 16c | 1,671$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…42c9backed Yes | 18c | 1,500$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 72c | 1,159$830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.8 | 2,023 | 39.4%798 W · 1,225 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -24%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0709…f2edbacked Yes | 9c | 1,055$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbb…050cbacked Yes | 45c | 666.67$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 17c | 447$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.99 | 419 | 43.9%184 W · 235 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 16c | 440$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.3 | 208 | 27.9%58 W · 150 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 71c | 339.62$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.6 | 137 | 54%74 W · 63 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Yes | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x051d…6980backed No | 78c | 153.18$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f84…f1c4backed Yes | 19c | 150$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ce…316ebacked Yes | 18c | 120$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4114…b9acbacked Yes | 18c | 111.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…271bbacked Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bb…09d2backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda7…fc55backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed No | 58c | 97$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.74 | 157 | 50.3%79 W · 78 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2343…e30cbacked Yes | 47c | 95.83$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbd…606cbacked Yes | 45c | 91.07$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Yes | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 29c | 77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 147 | 40.8%60 W · 87 L | -14.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 17c | 59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 272 | 26.8%73 W · 199 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb3…4393backed Yes | 26c | 42.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e5…c3d4backed Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59e5…0146backed Yes | 39c | 34.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Napoli vs. Pisa SC end in a draw?this page
- Will Napoli win on 2025-09-22?Yes won
- Will Pisa SC win on 2025-09-22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.