Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-15.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x535dfc3a1d1f8283bb8b93362623c8c9810fa70127909887b693347d1b619eff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ohio State Buckeyesof Michigan Wolverines, Ohio State Buckeyes
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,784
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,060
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,784 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Michigan Wolverines | 53c | 4,200$2,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,224.87 | 250 | 43.2%108 W · 142 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50be…371bbacked Michigan Wolverines | 53c | 3,773$1,987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,987.45 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.8wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Ohio State Buckeyes | 47c | 3,730$1,761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,968.48 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb66…2f53backed Ohio State Buckeyes | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,060 | 146 | 54.1%79 W · 67 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Ohio State Buckeyes | 45c | 1,777$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$977.35 | 277 | 55.2%153 W · 124 L | +19.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6238…0523backed Ohio State Buckeyes | 49c | 675.98$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.75 | 167 | 55.7%93 W · 74 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Michigan Wolverines | 56c | 500$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | -12.1wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Ohio State Buckeyes | 48c | 500$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262 | 1,260 | 43.3%545 W · 715 L | +34.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Ohio State Buckeyes | 50c | 460$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 794 | 48.9%388 W · 406 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Michigan Wolverines | 51c | 383.69$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.68 | 820 | 48.2%395 W · 425 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8081…95cabacked Michigan Wolverines | 39c | 365$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.7 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Michigan Wolverines | 51c | 274.98$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.24 | 658 | 25.7%169 W · 489 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x811c…490dbacked Michigan Wolverines | 54c | 244.13$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed Michigan Wolverines | 52c | 240$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.4 | 480 | 51%245 W · 235 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Ohio State Buckeyes | 53c | 221.88$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.89 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Ohio State Buckeyes | 63c | 210.7$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.1 | 2,003 | 53.7%1,076 W · 927 L | +101.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Ohio State Buckeyes | 48c | 200$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.01 | 192 | 38.5%74 W · 118 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Michigan Wolverines | 50c | 127.13$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.56 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Michigan Wolverines | 51c | 116.5$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.58 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc9…4534backed Michigan Wolverines | 54c | 108.66$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.68 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f02…12f5backed Ohio State Buckeyes | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Ohio State Buckeyes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 146 | 54.1%79 W · 67 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc11e…789fbacked Ohio State Buckeyes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -37%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Ohio State Buckeyes | 46c | 80.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.73 | 213 | 47.9%102 W · 111 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4683…1218backed Michigan Wolverines | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Ohio State Buckeyes | 47c | 66.24$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.85 | 974 | 47.9%467 W · 507 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e82…47d5backed Ohio State Buckeyes | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x497a…650fbacked Michigan Wolverines | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Ohio State Buckeyes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,162 | 55.2%641 W · 521 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Ohio State Buckeyes | 43c | 49.3$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.1 | 441 | 46.5%205 W · 236 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Ohio State Buckeyes | 73c | 46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Ohio State Buckeyes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 254 | 36.6%93 W · 161 L | -13.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d19…91e3backed Ohio State Buckeyes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Michigan Wolverines | 51c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 179 | 43.6%78 W · 101 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9487…54bbbacked Ohio State Buckeyes | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 362 | 48.6%176 W · 186 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…7eb9backed Michigan Wolverines | 54c | 24.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff8…7073backed Ohio State Buckeyes | 49c | 24.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -4.1wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x670d…fbe9backed Ohio State Buckeyes | 47c | 23.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75e2…2ed0backed Michigan Wolverines | 54c | 22.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 115 | 52.2%60 W · 55 L | -8.5wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-15.5)this page
- Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Michigan WolverinesMichigan Wolverines won
- Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 164.5Under won
- Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 165.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.