Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Twente beat Malmo FF?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5369c205089290e5a1fe669a21acbc90b895421c121f97806784fb00c26ff09e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,305
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,297
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,305 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 32c | 3,997$1,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,280.5 | 187 | 39%73 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 78c | 3,000$2,336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$664.38 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x950c…76f2backed Yes | 40c | 1,235$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$735.1 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked Yes | 37c | 1,040$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.51 | 75 | 66.7%50 W · 25 L | +8.4wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed No | 63c | 1,000$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 57c | 191.26$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.02 | 330 | 55.2%182 W · 148 L | +21.0wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf00f…711abacked No | 65c | 185.16$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.96 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4c…4fecbacked No | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99b6…172bbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Yes | 34c | 99.54$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.7 | 182 | 44%80 W · 102 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecb9…5a12backed Yes | 35c | 72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff11…cd68backed Yes | 31c | 37.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +159.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34b6…9c6abacked No | 69c | 37.64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb557…21d1backed No | 65c | 37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc2…608bbacked Yes | 35c | 37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31ba…ade1backed Yes | 35c | 36.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x820e…71d2backed No | 61c | 33.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f4…6cdabacked Yes | 33c | 32.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +130.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x170a…4234backed No | 67c | 32.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Yes | 42c | 31.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.58 | 99 | 61.6%61 W · 38 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae1…46d8backed No | 63c | 30.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…2858backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53d9…3926backed No | 63c | 29.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3579…bd98backed No | 64c | 23.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c83…dd00backed No | 65c | 19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa16d…af12backed No | 65c | 18.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x979f…06ebbacked No | 61c | 18.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc6…537dbacked No | 65c | 18.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Twente beat Malmo FF?this page
- Will Malmo FF beat Twente?No won
- Will the match between Malmo FF and Twente end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.