Premier League · resolved market
Will Nottingham Forest beat Chelsea?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x53763009874bb078f4e7898835bdc9c92d8398183cad6795113008b632da69e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,430
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,733
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,430 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Yes | 47c | 3,299$1,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,550.32 | 378 | 41.8%158 W · 220 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Yes | 14c | 2,761$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.94 | 138 | 37%51 W · 87 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 61c | 2,206$1,339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$867.23 | 402 | 54.7%220 W · 182 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe338…5760backed Yes | 24c | 1,366$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.79 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed No | 76c | 1,316$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.79 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ac…bd03backed Yes | 16c | 626.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +3.9wins | +0.49per pick | 39cpaid | +128.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce0…8d6fbacked No | 53c | 240$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.8 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -14.7wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd968…bd18backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -41%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed Yes | 14c | 221.95$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.07 | 171 | 43.3%74 W · 97 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7934…afdebacked Yes | 15c | 175.73$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…4db9backed Yes | 15c | 131.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 14c | 116.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 660 | 31.2%206 W · 454 L | -13.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fc…398bbacked Yes | 15c | 93.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae02…116bbacked Yes | 17c | 88.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c89…bb2abacked Yes | 21c | 49.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +101.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc9…7e94backed No | 79c | 43.03$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 78cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Nottingham Forest beat Chelsea?this page
- Will Chelsea beat Nottingham Forest?No won
- Will the match between Chelsea and Nottingham Forest end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.