Premier League · resolved market
Will the match between Chelsea and Nottingham Forest end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3042da712d85d40d419cc4796a6fd6f8282e914ae4cde8f0690c3c033c86ce1f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,652
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,935
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,652 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 79c | 1,232$973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$973.15 | 283 | 55.5%157 W · 126 L | +17.4wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 33c | 891.22$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.89 | 378 | 41.8%158 W · 220 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fff…10d5backed Yes | 67c | 837.33$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.2 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc4…3c1dbacked Yes | 21c | 747.62$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.62 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Yes | 54c | 463.75$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.74 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6761…a94fbacked Yes | 21c | 353$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.87 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed No | 79c | 333$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.07 | 171 | 43.3%74 W · 97 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c43…b289backed Yes | 62c | 250$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 121 | 49.6%60 W · 61 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f6…8afbbacked No | 80c | 167.49$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.43 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3011…43d9backed Yes | 21c | 144.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x509f…8fb7backed Yes | 21c | 119.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.05 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1266…cd8cbacked Yes | 20c | 105$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.05 | 144 | 50.7%73 W · 71 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff2…7ecabacked Yes | 57c | 102.33$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed No | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 253 | 29.2%74 W · 179 L | +11.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbe9…f4e5backed No | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ac…bd03backed Yes | 22c | 91.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.76 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +3.9wins | +0.49per pick | 39cpaid | +128.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 59c | 86.71$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.22 | 402 | 54.7%220 W · 182 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde44…b93cbacked Yes | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb4…0225backed Yes | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…7f88backed Yes | 32c | 46.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.57 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc9…fc51backed Yes | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e2…0fa1backed Yes | 67c | 37.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1cc…e644backed Yes | 69c | 21.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +35%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f93…5cd4backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb6…df1cbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 72cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the match between Chelsea and Nottingham Forest end in a draw?this page
- Will Chelsea beat Nottingham Forest?No won
- Will Nottingham Forest beat Chelsea?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.