MLB · resolved market
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x539f8b9c8670d12e6f192c0d95307338b3f69b9674b243b3a08342827c2c846e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Blue Jaysof Toronto Blue Jays, Minnesota Twins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,579
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,579 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Toronto Blue Jays | 49c | 2,875$1,408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,467.14 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…1d79backed Minnesota Twins | 54c | 1,870$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,008 | 262 | 45.8%120 W · 142 L | -17.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Minnesota Twins | 51c | 1,343$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$684.83 | 233 | 51.1%119 W · 114 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Minnesota Twins | 54c | 1,232$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.5 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 49c | 599.99$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309 | 352 | 45.5%160 W · 192 L | -13.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 46c | 518.24$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.14 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Minnesota Twins | 52c | 497.39$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.38 | 161 | 32.3%52 W · 109 L | -10.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5577…f320backed Toronto Blue Jays | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 49c | 400$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Minnesota Twins | 51c | 393.12$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.46 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Minnesota Twins | 38c | 369.08$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.47 | 555 | 41.4%230 W · 325 L | -26.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Minnesota Twins | 5c | 300$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,360 | 44.3%602 W · 758 L | +45.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Minnesota Twins | 51c | 296.39$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.16 | 112 | 56.3%63 W · 49 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Toronto Blue Jays | 48c | 291.67$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.67 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Toronto Blue Jays | 48c | 238.63$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.84 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Minnesota Twins | 53c | 212.57$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.57 | 981 | 49.8%489 W · 492 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 45c | 204$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.2 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Minnesota Twins | 50c | 161.3$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.65 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bb…2753backed Toronto Blue Jays | 49c | 133.06$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.06 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Toronto Blue Jays | 47c | 130.87$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.36 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Toronto Blue Jays | 48c | 123.48$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.21 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Toronto Blue Jays | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c70…b25ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 71c | 98.16$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.16 | 133 | 61.7%82 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda60…595cbacked Minnesota Twins | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 79c | 90$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 79c | 89$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 103 | 53.4%55 W · 48 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Minnesota Twins | 22c | 72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 392 | 9.4%37 W · 355 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15c5…4692backed Toronto Blue Jays | 45c | 71.92$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.4 | 403 | 51.4%207 W · 196 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Minnesota Twins | 52c | 70.63$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.83 | 950 | 41.5%394 W · 556 L | -48.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3100…9bc9backed Minnesota Twins | 49c | 64.19$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.53 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Minnesota Twins | 21c | 49.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Minnesota Twins | 28c | 44.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0204…0e31backed Toronto Blue Jays | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 180 | 48.3%87 W · 93 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Toronto Blue Jays | 48c | 37.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 50c | 32.35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Minnesota Twins | 52c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 236 | 47%111 W · 125 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec18…12e2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.