Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Massachusetts Minutemen vs. Ball State Cardinals: O/U 140.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x53a5250b8285220106b2518f080d9e8fd17399a130be368ac3277dd19c3fcf0b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,098
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,021
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,098 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9405…c071backed Under | 48c | 9,969$4,785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,785.29 | 445 | 49.4%220 W · 225 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2537…bff9backed Over | 52c | 9,952$5,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,777.11 | 444 | 52.7%234 W · 210 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Over | 52c | 2,885$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,384.61 | 351 | 47.6%167 W · 184 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Under | 46c | 2,072$949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$948.76 | 898 | 50%449 W · 449 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Over | 53c | 1,863$987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$875.49 | 740 | 51.5%381 W · 359 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 996.64$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.77 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 46c | 936.78$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.87 | 841 | 47.4%399 W · 442 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e16…0127backed Under | 45c | 624.54$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.04 | 137 | 46.7%64 W · 73 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Over | 53c | 561.1$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.72 | 347 | 46.1%160 W · 187 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 53c | 215.09$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.09 | 308 | 53.2%164 W · 144 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Under | 48c | 206.51$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.13 | 1,251 | 50.6%633 W · 618 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…f968backed Under | 48c | 204.81$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.13 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 45c | 204.21$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.8 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Under | 47c | 198.26$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.18 | 388 | 37.6%146 W · 242 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf7…06acbacked Over | 53c | 190.82$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.69 | 273 | 50.5%138 W · 135 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Under | 45c | 125$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.25 | 939 | 41.6%391 W · 548 L | +25.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 51c | 98.03$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.03 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Over | 51c | 86.58$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.43 | 141 | 50.4%71 W · 70 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb171…7d2bbacked Under | 48c | 82.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.65 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 46c | 76$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 505 | 48.9%247 W · 258 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Over | 52c | 60.47$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.02 | 408 | 49.8%203 W · 205 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4855…6a41backed Under | 50c | 59.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 326 | 52.8%172 W · 154 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed Under | 46c | 54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 852 | 48.8%416 W · 436 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6e8…ed04backed Under | 48c | 51.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Over | 53c | 44.61$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.97 | 155 | 51.6%80 W · 75 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1c…35c6backed Under | 45c | 44.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 55c | 40.62$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.35 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed57…83f4backed Under | 47c | 26.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74fe…8243backed Under | 48c | 24.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 89 | 52.8%47 W · 42 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 43c | 24.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Massachusetts Minutemen vs. Ball State Cardinals: O/U 140.5this page
- Massachusetts Minutemen vs. Ball State CardinalsBall State Cardinals won
- Spread: Massachusetts Minutemen (-4.5)Ball State Cardinals won
- Spread: Massachusetts Minutemen (-5.5)Ball State Cardinals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.