Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Massachusetts Minutemen vs. Ball State Cardinals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa33f2a29d9cd0b18b93691f508d4500c45ec2c65bf4c0c188a03e3109ef89dda
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ball State Cardinalsof Massachusetts Minutemen, Ball State Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $75,038
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,924
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,038 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcccd…4a1bbacked Massachusetts Minutemen | 0c | 10,385$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Massachusetts Minutemen | 28c | 9,807$2,722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,721.5 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Massachusetts Minutemen | 67c | 8,737$5,854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,853.91 | 896 | 45.9%411 W · 485 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Ball State Cardinals | 33c | 7,993$2,639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,354.18 | 1,397 | 52.7%736 W · 661 L | +26.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Ball State Cardinals | 73c | 6,213$4,529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,684.09 | 1,074 | 43.3%465 W · 609 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Ball State Cardinals | 74c | 3,187$2,347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840.12 | 2,555 | 41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Ball State Cardinals | 61c | 1,672$1,012 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.82 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f08…ed44backed Ball State Cardinals | 76c | 1,524$1,158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.77 | 464 | 46.8%217 W · 247 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Massachusetts Minutemen | 27c | 1,402$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.08 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Massachusetts Minutemen | 67c | 1,164$782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$782.45 | 1,511 | 47.8%722 W · 789 L | -35.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked Ball State Cardinals | 27c | 1,133$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$824.64 | 1,983 | 26.4%523 W · 1,460 L | -55.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Massachusetts Minutemen | 66c | 966.17$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636.8 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked Ball State Cardinals | 34c | 875.42$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.78 | 248 | 47.6%118 W · 130 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Massachusetts Minutemen | 36c | 787.32$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.61 | 397 | 42.8%170 W · 227 L | -15.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa8…56dbbacked Ball State Cardinals | 66c | 772.86$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.97 | 1,058 | 55.8%590 W · 468 L | +34.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d70…fdd9backed Massachusetts Minutemen | 73c | 760$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.2 | 932 | 47.3%441 W · 491 L | -22.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Ball State Cardinals | 68c | 684.54$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.69 | 2,124 | 50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Massachusetts Minutemen | 35c | 645.23$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.74 | 1,531 | 50.1%767 W · 764 L | +34.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffb…e82abacked Ball State Cardinals | 16c | 618.35$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.83 | 434 | 50%217 W · 217 L | +13.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Ball State Cardinals | 33c | 497.51$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.94 | 2,194 | 33.4%733 W · 1,461 L | +19.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Ball State Cardinals | 33c | 422.6$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.14 | 586 | 52.9%310 W · 276 L | +23.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Ball State Cardinals | 34c | 420.87$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.77 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…a4c5backed Massachusetts Minutemen | 66c | 307.11$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.69 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59b6…307fbacked Massachusetts Minutemen | 75c | 303.35$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.5 | 453 | 51.4%233 W · 220 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked Ball State Cardinals | 33c | 300$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201 | 555 | 32.8%182 W · 373 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Ball State Cardinals | 34c | 291.81$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.59 | 1,251 | 50.6%633 W · 618 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…6329backed Massachusetts Minutemen | 58c | 284.48$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.58 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Ball State Cardinals | 44c | 245.32$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.42 | 716 | 55.3%396 W · 320 L | +26.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad5b…d645backed Ball State Cardinals | 77c | 226.37$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.3 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64a8…7bc3backed Massachusetts Minutemen | 45c | 222.28$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.14 | 170 | 62.9%107 W · 63 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Ball State Cardinals | 34c | 199.88$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.97 | 1,317 | 33.6%443 W · 874 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa325…bc64backed Ball State Cardinals | 33c | 198.45$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.96 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +4.0wins | +0.29per pick | 50cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed1…caa2backed Massachusetts Minutemen | 40c | 198.32$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.33 | 253 | 25.3%64 W · 189 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…f81dbacked Massachusetts Minutemen | 79c | 172.92$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.45 | 870 | 47.2%411 W · 459 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Massachusetts Minutemen | 67c | 148.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.72 | 934 | 47.9%447 W · 487 L | -19.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Ball State Cardinals | 35c | 143.47$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.86 | 833 | 50.2%418 W · 415 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa302…6c3fbacked Massachusetts Minutemen | 38c | 109.05$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.74 | 59 | 10.2%6 W · 53 L | -8.3wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Ball State Cardinals | 34c | 107.56$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.99 | 922 | 46%424 W · 498 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Ball State Cardinals | 72c | 107.42$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 1,420 | 43.9%623 W · 797 L | +8.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Ball State Cardinals | 73c | 104.35$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.18 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…517cbacked Massachusetts Minutemen | 67c | 103.67$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.46 | 72 | 27.8%20 W · 52 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7af8…f7acbacked Massachusetts Minutemen | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c84…57f8backed Massachusetts Minutemen | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Ball State Cardinals | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.7 | 1,003 | 55.3%555 W · 448 L | +46.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf43c…d7c3backed Ball State Cardinals | 32c | 99.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.99 | 491 | 57.2%281 W · 210 L | +18.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…3f1bbacked Ball State Cardinals | 34c | 99.21$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.48 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Ball State Cardinals | 59c | 99.16$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.43 | 1,493 | 48.7%727 W · 766 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Ball State Cardinals | 33c | 96.08$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.37 | 1,296 | 45.1%584 W · 712 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Ball State Cardinals | 33c | 93.57$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.73 | 1,446 | 43.4%627 W · 819 L | +10.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Ball State Cardinals | 33c | 90.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Massachusetts Minutemen | 19c | 89.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Ball State Cardinals | 76c | 88.08$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.46 | 848 | 54.5%462 W · 386 L | +32.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03c7…22f2backed Massachusetts Minutemen | 37c | 84.25$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.17 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a9…e22ebacked Ball State Cardinals | 31c | 82.63$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.91 | 374 | 41.7%156 W · 218 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd5…ef85backed Ball State Cardinals | 16c | 80.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.02 | 252 | 39.3%99 W · 153 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Massachusetts Minutemen | 64c | 79.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.32 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Massachusetts Minutemen | 66c | 75.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Ball State Cardinals | 27c | 65.37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.87 | 771 | 42.3%326 W · 445 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Ball State Cardinals | 40c | 62.73$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.38 | 1,667 | 36.4%607 W · 1,060 L | -4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Ball State Cardinals | 35c | 60.91$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.59 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +19.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78e0…207abacked Ball State Cardinals | 34c | 56.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe545…5bacbacked Ball State Cardinals | 27c | 55.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.18 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b12…7a77backed Massachusetts Minutemen | 67c | 49.61$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.24 | 523 | 53.5%280 W · 243 L | -17.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Massachusetts Minutemen | 68c | 46.64$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 1,074 | 47%505 W · 569 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a45…f81bbacked Ball State Cardinals | 73c | 44.26$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Ball State Cardinals | 34c | 40.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.85 | 612 | 44.9%275 W · 337 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec8d…453dbacked Ball State Cardinals | 71c | 40.35$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 98 | 49%48 W · 50 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Ball State Cardinals | 35c | 38.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.76 | 815 | 28.8%235 W · 580 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf395…ac0abacked Massachusetts Minutemen | 74c | 38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 356 | 50.8%181 W · 175 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1e…21a1backed Massachusetts Minutemen | 45c | 37.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 65 | 66.2%43 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x223f…2050backed Ball State Cardinals | 33c | 33.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.33 | 709 | 36.1%256 W · 453 L | -27.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Ball State Cardinals | 76c | 29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 1,951 | 45.1%880 W · 1,071 L | -19.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e0…a433backed Massachusetts Minutemen | 65c | 29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 152 | 46.7%71 W · 81 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc1…f56cbacked Massachusetts Minutemen | 67c | 21.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85fe…c276backed Massachusetts Minutemen | 67c | 18.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4597…0e8cbacked Massachusetts Minutemen | 67c | 15.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Massachusetts Minutemen vs. Ball State Cardinalsthis page
- Massachusetts Minutemen vs. Ball State Cardinals: O/U 140.5Over won
- Spread: Massachusetts Minutemen (-4.5)Ball State Cardinals won
- Spread: Massachusetts Minutemen (-5.5)Ball State Cardinals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.