CS2 · resolved market
IEM Cologne: Astralis vs. FURIA
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x53be83f084ba59682caad79c62daa2ce01f165eafccbdca7840d6d540c0bcc95
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FURIAof Astralis, FURIA
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,343
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,543
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,343 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x008a…21a8backed Astralis | 58c | 19,027$11,031 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,031.42 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1d…74ccbacked FURIA | 42c | 11,347$4,730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,617.01 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee03…3eeabacked FURIA | 43c | 3,954$1,715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,238.78 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed FURIA | 43c | 3,181$1,366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,815 | 218 | 46.8%102 W · 116 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…20e0backed FURIA | 74c | 2,372$1,755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616.75 | 212 | 51.4%109 W · 103 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…d327backed Astralis | 56c | 1,577$881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880.88 | 186 | 50%93 W · 93 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked FURIA | 42c | 999.99$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.99 | 1,611 | 45.4%731 W · 880 L | +30.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2a…2aaebacked Astralis | 58c | 877.05$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa856…3964backed FURIA | 67c | 746.27$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.27 | 222 | 42.8%95 W · 127 L | -12.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2095…8521backed FURIA | 41c | 500$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…7465backed FURIA | 42c | 396.61$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.03 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94a1…ec2fbacked FURIA | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 163 | 57.1%93 W · 70 L | +14.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Astralis | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 367 | 51%187 W · 180 L | -15.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb78…3acfbacked Astralis | 52c | 154.45$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Astralis | 24c | 104.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 103 | 48.5%50 W · 53 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…4900backed FURIA | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 145 | 40.7%59 W · 86 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Astralis | 48c | 90.24$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 736 | 58.2%428 W · 308 L | -22.8wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7514…49bebacked Astralis | 58c | 77.59$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 317 | 58%184 W · 133 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4895…0a83backed Astralis | 34c | 58.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7703…34b9backed Astralis | 33c | 49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecba…5fb4backed Astralis | 54c | 48.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 245 | 54.7%134 W · 111 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd420…df90backed Astralis | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc203…ffb8backed FURIA | 46c | 22.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.