Tennis · resolved market
ITF Tokyo: Ikumi Yamazaki vs Nao Nishino
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x540f1a0b7d640612d86b88f0126e97d2063ab82c920fb5029a4201cc7ec753bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ikumi Yamazakiof Ikumi Yamazaki, Nao Nishino
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,319
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,637
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,319 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6982…a165backed Ikumi Yamazaki | 32c | 8,774$2,804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,969.81 | 629 | 56.9%358 W · 271 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc92…649dbacked Nao Nishino | 21c | 5,207$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 91 | 18.7%17 W · 74 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Nao Nishino | 70c | 2,531$1,774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,774.26 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Nao Nishino | 46c | 1,564$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 1,615 | 50.6%817 W · 798 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0284…97f6backed Nao Nishino | 53c | 1,150$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.76 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Nao Nishino | 49c | 929.62$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.59 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Nao Nishino | 71c | 905.73$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646.06 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Nao Nishino | 67c | 634.73$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.53 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Ikumi Yamazaki | 47c | 600$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ae…3e6cbacked Nao Nishino | 58c | 500$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289 | 111 | 41.4%46 W · 65 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7002…395cbacked Ikumi Yamazaki | 69c | 405.64$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.24 | 222 | 52.7%117 W · 105 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…2b70backed Nao Nishino | 56c | 367.49$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.12 | 399 | 41.9%167 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd034…eecebacked Ikumi Yamazaki | 46c | 362.92$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.98 | 2,735 | 34%931 W · 1,804 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Nao Nishino | 70c | 321.47$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.98 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90bb…531fbacked Nao Nishino | 59c | 300$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 199 | 41.7%83 W · 116 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Ikumi Yamazaki | 31c | 293.6$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.69 | 320 | 31.3%100 W · 220 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9086…4d46backed Nao Nishino | 72c | 244.99$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.41 | 1,841 | 48.5%892 W · 949 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…0a38backed Nao Nishino | 59c | 193$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.43 | 452 | 35.8%162 W · 290 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca2…088ebacked Nao Nishino | 59c | 193$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.43 | 197 | 44.7%88 W · 109 L | +17.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Ikumi Yamazaki | 45c | 174.2$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.15 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed Nao Nishino | 55c | 156$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.36 | 482 | 35.9%173 W · 309 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed Nao Nishino | 55c | 156$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.36 | 694 | 38%264 W · 430 L | +21.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x300d…780dbacked Nao Nishino | 56c | 147.57$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.06 | 181 | 32.6%59 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73fc…9af9backed Nao Nishino | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6200…7d23backed Ikumi Yamazaki | 20c | 64.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.92 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8711…d2d0backed Ikumi Yamazaki | 28c | 60.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.71 | 433 | 58.4%253 W · 180 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked Nao Nishino | 64c | 46.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 625 | 49.6%310 W · 315 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ec…aa22backed Nao Nishino | 44c | 43.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +4.9wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c0…fad2backed Nao Nishino | 44c | 43.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +5.3wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3b…cea6backed Nao Nishino | 57c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 83 | 65.1%54 W · 29 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Ikumi Yamazaki | 45c | 31.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 1,870 | 16%299 W · 1,571 L | -314.3wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x8951…dfcfbacked Ikumi Yamazaki | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 258 | 58.1%150 W · 108 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x985d…33c9backed Ikumi Yamazaki | 46c | 21.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 1,300 | 36.9%480 W · 820 L | -34.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.