Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Trump win the Michigan Primary by more than 60% of the vote?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x540ff9affba0de36f585e538d4dfae6c473094ec1045b2b76e5cc3ee1cf7b543
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,603
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,764
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,603 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x326d…f87abacked Yes | 7c | 8,751$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked No | 79c | 5,035$3,984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,050.98 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a56…adabbacked Yes | 10c | 3,090$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d5…2884backed Yes | 10c | 2,231$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x427c…17b7backed Yes | 1c | 1,007$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd279…e09dbacked Yes | 19c | 999.02$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.62 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 35cpaid | -84%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10ca…bb25backed Yes | 10c | 650$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…385bbacked Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c6…2902backed Yes | 7c | 275$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92c6…93eebacked Yes | 9c | 177.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4c…92c7backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump win the Michigan Primary by more than 60% of the vote?this page
- Will Trump win the Michigan Primary by between 20-30% of the vote?No won
- Will Trump win the Michigan Primary by between 30-40% of the vote?No won
- Will Trump win the Michigan Primary by between 40-50% of the vote?Yes won
- Will Trump win the Michigan Primary by between 50-60% of the vote?No won
- Will Trump win the Michigan Primary by less than 20% of the vote?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.